Bitcoin recorded 14,942 BTC in net exchange outflows on a single day, its largest daily total in five weeks, according to Santiment Intelligence. The movement came just ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and Thursday's releases of GDP and PCE data — the PCE index being the inflation measure the U.S. central bank tracks most closely. The on-chain signals arrived alongside two other notable data points: Glassnode reported that Bitcoin had outperformed the S&P 500 across recent weeks, while analyst Darkfost tracked a return to negative territory for his market sentiment index.

Exchange Outflows Put $80,000 Support in Focus

Santiment Intelligence, which tracks wallet activity and measures the net movement of Bitcoin from exchanges, reported that holders withdrew coins from trading platforms ahead of several major economic releases. Outflows of that kind shrink exchange balances — the pool of coins immediately available to sell on trading venues — which is why on-chain analysts routinely monitor the metric as a window into holder behavior. The firm flagged $80,000 as the first price level to defend if macroeconomic developments trigger selling pressure.

According to the analysis, if Bitcoin holds that level while exchange supply continues to fall, the price could rebound toward $82,500 to $84,000. A decisive drop below roughly $79,000, however, would weaken that setup. Santiment also identified a reclaim of $82,500 after the economic releases as stronger confirmation of a recovery.

Glassnode Tracks Bitcoin's Performance and RSI Strategy

Glassnode, meanwhile, reported that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 across recent weeks, recording more winning trading days than losing ones. That marked a notable shift from June, when Bitcoin registered a winning day in only one of five sessions — its weakest stretch in more than five years.

The analytics firm also shared a backtested Bitcoin trading rule based on the 30-day relative strength index (RSI) of entities in profit — the share of holders whose coins are valued above their acquisition cost. RSI is a widely used momentum indicator scaled from 0 to 100. The strategy buys when the indicator crosses above a specified threshold. Since July 2023, the rule recorded a maximum drawdown of 20%, compared with 53% for simply holding Bitcoin. Maximum drawdown measures the steepest peak-to-trough decline a strategy endures, and backtest figures describe historical performance rather than future outcomes. Glassnode did not disclose the threshold value used in the backtest.

Darkfost Measures Worsening Bitcoin Market Sentiment

Analyst Darkfost reported that the Bitcoin Unified Sentiment index had returned to negative territory, standing at -11 and continuing to decline. That points to weaker sentiment compared with previous readings. Darkfost characterized the current level as relatively neutral while noting a clear deterioration in overall market mood.

The index spans a range from +100 to -100 and combines the Fear and Greed Index with CoinGecko's sentiment check. Both inputs undergo normalization over a rolling one-year window. On that scale, any sub-zero reading sits on the negative side, so the latest print marks a directional shift even though it remains far from the extremes.

The latest reading places Bitcoin sentiment in negative territory just as traders turn their attention to the Federal Reserve's decision and Thursday's slate of economic data releases. How price action behaves around the $80,000 level — and whether exchange supply keeps contracting — will be among the data points on watch once the macro outcomes land.