Bitcoin and ether posted losses on the last day of July, diverging sharply from a robust performance in global equities. Bitcoin fell 1.31% to $63,870, while ether dropped 1.40% to $1,890 after struggling to reclaim the $2,000 level it reached earlier in the month. Ether's inability to hold above $2,000 comes despite the launch of spot ether ETFs on U.S. exchanges on July 23, an event that had been expected to deepen institutional access to the asset but has so far coincided with outflows from the newly listed products.

The broader crypto market is closing out July on the back foot. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve committee members have dampened recovery hopes this week. The CoinDesk 20 Index has declined 2.34% since midnight Monday, though it remains up 8.7% since June — its best monthly advance in a year and the first positive month in three. Market participants are now looking to the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting as the next potential catalyst, with expectations for a rate cut having fluctuated amid mixed economic data.

By contrast, equities are firmly in positive territory. South Korea's Kospi surged more than 15%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 1.23%. S&P 500 index futures are also in the green. The divergence marks a notable break from the pattern seen earlier in 2024, when bitcoin and major equity indices frequently moved in tandem following the approval of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs in January.

Derivatives Positioning

Taker Long-Short Futures Volume Ratio: As the market weakens, the taker long-short futures volume ratio continues to lean bearish, indicating a downside bias. A taker is a market participant who executes an order immediately against an existing order in the order book.

XRP Futures Open Interest Rises: XRP's futures open interest extended its three-week upswing to 2.27 billion tokens, the highest since late June. Over the same period, XRP's price declined to $1.07 from $1.13. A price drop combined with rising open interest is typically interpreted as confirmation of a downtrend, signaling that traders are shorting in anticipation of further declines.

BTC in Stasis: Bitcoin's open interest has remained static at approximately 750K contracts throughout the month, indicating reluctance among traders to deploy capital into leveraged products despite signs of market stability. BTC's early-month bounce from below $58,000 has stalled in the $62,000–$65,000 range, a pattern mirrored by ether and Solana.

UNI's Open Interest Growth: Uniswap's UNI token led open interest growth for the third consecutive day, rising to .80 million UNI — a level last seen on February 14. This signals investor willingness to take on risk in tokens supported by positive news flow. BlackRock recently announced plans to debut its tokenized Treasury fund on Uniswap.

Negative Cumulative Volume Delta: Most major tokens, including UNI, exhibit negative 24-hour open-interest-adjusted cumulative volume delta, a pattern consistently observed during sharp downtrends over the past year. A negative CVD indicates that traders are executing more aggressive short market orders relative to passive limit orders.

Bitcoin Implied Volatility: Bitcoin's BVIV, the 30-day implied volatility index, fell to 37%, its lowest level since May. These levels have historically served as floors, triggering a rebound in the so-called fear gauge. Since the launch of bitcoin ETFs in 2024, BTC price correlation with the BVIV has been negative, meaning a bounce in the BVIV could coincide with a further spot-price decline.

Options Open Interest: On Deribit, bitcoin and ether options worth $10 billion expired early today, part of the exchange's monthly settlement cycle. The distribution of open interest across remaining expiries extending to June 2027 shows the $60,000 put as the most popular position. A put represents a bearish wager on the market.

Token Performance

Uniswap (UNI) was Friday's standout altcoin, gaining 9.30% over 24 hours to $4.41, sustaining momentum from its Robinhood layer-2 integration announced earlier this month.

Ethena (ENA) extended its recovery, rising 1.23% since midnight UTC and 4.31% over 24 hours to $0.082. The token has rebounded significantly from its July lows, though it remains more than 90% below its all-time high.

Lighter (LIT) fell a further 2.28%, deepening its correction from July peaks. The token is now 20% below the highs set earlier this month, following a 200% rally between May and early July.

Zcash (ZEC) relinquished 2.15% to $459 after a strong run earlier in the week, as the privacy coin sector broadly lost ground on Friday.

Cardano (ADA) added 0.94% since midnight and 4.09% over 24 hours, quietly extending a recovery from June's 45% plunge.