Bitcoin ETFs on Track for Smallest Monthly Inflows on Record

Analysts have repeatedly highlighted multiday inflows into U.S.-listed cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds this month as a sign that institutional demand is returning. A broader view, however, tells a more sobering story.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have drawn just $205 million in net inflows through July, the lowest monthly total since the funds began trading in January 2024, according to data from SoSoValue. With two trading days remaining, the figure represents only a muted recovery from the steep outflows recorded in prior months — $2.43 billion exited in May, followed by $4.52 billion in June. To put the July figure in perspective, the products attracted over $12 billion during their first three months of trading alone, underscoring how far inflows have fallen from post-launch enthusiasm.

Ether ETFs have performed comparatively better. ETH funds attracted $342.85 million in July, nearly matching April's total and outpacing bitcoin and other crypto products. XRP is positioned for a fourth straight month of net inflows, albeit at a modest $13.61 million. Solana ETFs stand at $13.82 million. Taken together, the figures suggest institutional interest remains constrained at best, even as broader equity markets notch gains and risk appetite shows signs of recovery elsewhere.

Ether's stronger showing aligns with its relative price strength against bitcoin. The Binance-listed ETH/BTC pair has climbed 11% this month.

Over the past 24 hours, neither asset has moved decisively, even after the Federal Reserve delivered what several analysts characterized as a hawkish hold — a stance that might typically pressure prices lower.

"On the board, the 200-week near $63,300 is the referee, hold it and today's flatness reads as strength, lose $62.5k and the bears get their $60k liquidation target," analysts at Marex said.

Volatility could increase later today with the release of U.S. core PCE inflation and GDP data, both of which could shift expectations for the Fed's September decision and, by extension, influence risk-asset positioning.

Macro and Geopolitical Developments

Senate ethics push on Trump crypto ventures: A bipartisan pair of senators is preparing to send stricter ethics provisions regarding President Trump's cryptocurrency ventures to the White House, according to sources familiar with the matter. The lawmakers have been revising the Trump-approved ethics section of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act draft and believe their updated language can secure enough votes for passage. The outcome could shape the regulatory framework governing digital assets in the U.S. for years to come. (CoinDesk)

U.S. strikes Iran: The United States carried out additional strikes against Iran on Wednesday, with Iran threatening further escalation as the five-month-old conflict continues to widen across the region. Oil prices recorded their sharpest spike in five months, a development that historically correlates with tighter financial conditions and risk-off behavior across asset classes. (Reuters)

Treasury sell-off deepens: U.S. Treasury yields continued their ascent as investors digested the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady and looked for signals on the future rate path. The 30-year bond yield climbed to its highest level since July 2007, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bitcoin and adding a macroeconomic headwind to the already subdued ETF demand picture. (CNBC)

Derivatives Drive Price Discovery in Crypto Markets

A growing body of market-microstructure research has examined which trading venue "discovers" the bitcoin price first — meaning where new information enters the market before it becomes visible elsewhere. The answer, according to multiple studies, frequently points to perpetual futures (perps). A recent episode involving SpaceX underscored just how significant the influence of derivatives markets on spot pricing can be. For market participants, this means that watching perps funding rates and open-interest shifts can offer early signals before moves propagate to spot exchanges. (CoinDesk)

Technical Signal: Bollinger Bands at Multi-Month Tightest

BTC's daily chart, displayed in candlestick format with Bollinger Bands overlaid, shows the volatility bands at their tightest level since at least January. Bollinger Bands sit two standard deviations above and below the 20-day simple moving average of an asset's spot price and tend to contract when the asset trades within a narrow range for an extended period — precisely the pattern observed currently.

A prolonged contraction, commonly referred to as a squeeze, frequently precedes a sharp directional move. Analysts liken the pattern to a compressed spring that stores energy before releasing it, sending the price sharply higher or lower. With the core PCE and GDP releases scheduled for later today, market participants are watching whether the data will serve as the catalyst that resolves the squeeze.

Also Trending

1. Dubai-based crypto exchange tied to $4 billion Iran sanctioned-evasion network
2. World Cup bets smash records as prediction markets hit $20 billion in volume
3. U.S. sanctions Iran-linked bitcoin insurance scheme for Strait of Hormuz ships
4. Bitcoin $60,000 put leads the pack as mood swings bearish for August
5. Bitcoin, ether fall, equities rally with broader crypto market on track for best month in a year
6. New York sues Kalshi, alleges it offers a gambling platform 'plain and simple'
7. Quantum Solutions, Hyperscale Data tap crypto treasuries to fund AI data centers
8. Bitcoin's calm is back and so is the setup for a volatility explosion
9. Live updates: Bitcoin slides back below $64,000 as Nasdaq continues rally
10. Bitcoin flat near $64,000 as Kospi's record 17% surge leaves crypto untouched