Bitcoin ETFs Shed $773.5 Million in Two Days as On-Chain Metrics Point to Accumulation

Bitcoin [$BTC] spot ETFs registered combined outflows of $773.5 million on October 22 and 23, and the leading cryptocurrency shed 3.45% across those two sessions, continuing to post losses heading into the weekend. The outflows came during a week of net negative spot ETF flows from October 20 to 23.

Spot ETFs hold bitcoin directly and issue shares that trade through traditional brokerage accounts, which is why their daily flow reports are commonly read as a gauge of demand from institutional and traditional-finance investors. While ETF flows turned negative, on-chain indicators shifted in the opposite direction. Analyst CW8900 reported that the Bitcoin 1-year change in whale holdings indicator — which tracks the net change in supply held by bitcoin's largest on-chain holders over a rolling twelve-month window — was nearing positive territory. Selling pressure from whale distribution has been declining since July, and the change in $BTC holdings has climbed from -282k $BTC to -39k $BTC. In less than three months, the analyst observed, whales bought 243k $BTC.

MVRV Percentile Places the Market in an Early Accumulation Phase

On July 1, when Bitcoin was trading at $59.3k, the MVRV Percentile reached 0%. The metric recovered to 32% by late September and has since pulled back to 25%.

The indicator normalizes MVRV data onto a scale from 0% to 100%. The underlying MVRV ratio compares bitcoin's market value against its realized value — the aggregate value of all coins measured at the prices when they last moved on-chain. Extremely low values reflect deep undervaluation, while high values point to market euphoria and overextension phases. Read against that historical context, the current MVRV Percentile places the market in an early to mid accumulation phase, the analyst reported.

The 3-day timeframe price chart also revealed a bullish structure in place, supporting the long-term bullish view of a shift in market regime.

Exchange Supplies Shrink While Futures Buyers and Sellers Stay Balanced

Since September 22, the 30-day exchange flow has been positive, with more $BTC leaving exchanges than entering. Supply readily available for sale on exchanges has therefore been shrinking — a development generally considered a sign of buying.

Meanwhile, the 30-day positioning index in the futures market rose to +.3, up from -0.5 a week earlier. The reading is positive but very close to zero, showing that buyers and sellers maintained an equilibrium, with neither side holding an advantage.

The analyst cautioned that a shift toward net exchange inflows, combined with negative positioning index scores, would be a strong warning sign of further bearish pressure. With the positioning index hovering near zero, the direction of daily ETF flows and the 30-day exchange flow balance stand out as the data points to watch in upcoming sessions.

Summary

The week's Bitcoin spot ETF outflows were accompanied by neutral positioning index scores. However, the longer-term market cycle appeared to be in an accumulation phase, evidenced by whale buying and coin outflows from exchanges.

Source: CryptoNewsNet · Original article: AMBCrypto