'Uptober' Opens Green as US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Draw $134 Million
Key Takeaways
- •U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs began October with $134.4 million in net inflows, pulling in $102.7 million on Thursday and $31.7 million on Friday.
- •September closed as the funds' second-best month since October 2025 with $2.65 billion in net inflows, even after a $148.7 million outflow on Sept. 30 ended a nine-session streak.
- •A softer September labor market, with 29,000 jobs added and unemployment rising to 4.2%, pushed October rate-hike expectations down to 14% from 70%, a dynamic considered supportive for risk assets.
- •Bitcoin briefly reached $87,173 on Friday, just below its September high of $87,354, before easing to around $85,000 by Sunday morning.
- •Prediction-market traders on Myriad assign 93% odds against Bitcoin setting a new all-time high in 2026, with the Oct. 14 CPI report and the Fed's Oct. 28 meeting as the next key tests.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are living up to the "Uptober" meme — at least for now. The funds drew $102.7 million in net inflows on Thursday and another $31.7 million on Friday, according to Decrypt's Bitcoin ETF tracker, opening October with a combined $134.4 million in net inflows. The products hold Bitcoin directly and trade on U.S. stock exchanges, and their daily flows have become a closely watched gauge of demand for the asset.
The strong opening stood in contrast to the end of September. On Sept. 30, the funds shed $148.7 million, snapping a nine-session inflow streak that had begun on Sept. 17. Even so, September closed as their second-best month since October 2025, with $2.65 in net inflows, according to SoSoValue data — a rebound after heavy outflows earlier in the year.
"Uptober" is crypto shorthand for October's historical record as one of Bitcoin's strongest months. Over the past decade, the asset has averaged an 18% gain in October, Stephen Wundke of Algoz told Decrypt. "Traders feel there is more upside currently than there is downside," he said.
Friday's jobs report added fuel to that outlook. The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After the release, odds of an October rate hike on CME FedWatch, a tool that gauges rate expectations in futures markets, fell to 14%, down from 70% earlier in the week. A weaker labor market eases pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates — a dynamic that tends to favor risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's price followed through. The asset briefly tested $87,173 on Friday, just shy of its September high of $87,354, before pulling back. As of Sunday morning, it traded around $85,000, up 0.5% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
Cumulative net inflows since the funds' January 2024 debut — when U.S. regulators approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs — now stand at $58.1 billion, and total net assets sit at $101.1 billion, according to Decrypt's tracker.
Not everyone is betting on a breakout. Traders on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Dastan, Decrypt's parent company, put the odds at 93% that Bitcoin will not set a new all-time high in 2026. Year-to-date ETF inflows also remain below $1 billion after heavy outflows earlier in the year.
The next tests are close at hand: September's CPI report — the Consumer Price Index, a key inflation gauge that informs Fed policy — is due on Oct. 14, and the Federal Reserve meets on Oct. 28.
