U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds returned to net inflows on Sept. 17, recording approximately $159.45 million in net additions after two sessions of heavy withdrawals, according to Trader T data. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the rebound with about $183.66 million.

The recovery came as Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas argued that Bitcoin funds could eventually become three times larger than gold ETFs as younger investors gain wealth and institutional adoption broadens. The long-term projection stands in contrast to the present landscape, where gold retains a far larger asset base: World Gold Council data put global physically backed gold ETF assets at about $615 billion at the end of August, while IBIT alone held nearly $59.9 billion as of Sept. 17. At current levels, IBIT's assets amount to less than a tenth of the gold ETF market. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, and IBIT has since grown into the largest fund in the category. Gold funds needed more than two decades to build their asset base since the category's debut in the early 2000s, while the Bitcoin products — which give investors exposure through ordinary brokerage accounts — have reached their current scale in under three years, a maturity gap that frames how much room the newer market has to close the distance.

JPMorgan said gold ETFs have also recovered their earlier 2026 outflows faster than Bitcoin funds. Still, the bank noted that heavier hedging around IBIT could leave Bitcoin with more room for support if investors unwind their protection without selling the underlying exposure.

Balchunas: Bitcoin ETFs Will Be 3x Gold ETFs

Speaking during a recent television interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Balchunas said Bitcoin ETFs could ultimately grow to three times the size of gold ETFs.

“I think as the younger investors get more money and grow up with Bitcoin as their store of value, I do believe that Bitcoin ETFs will triple gold in assets,” he said.

Bitcoin ETFs currently hold more than $100 billion in combined assets, with IBIT capturing roughly 60% of the total. Gold ETFs, by comparison, manage $615 billion, according to the World Gold Council. Set against that figure, a tripling would imply roughly $1.8 trillion in Bitcoin ETF assets if gold fund holdings stayed where they are today.

Balchunas outlined several reasons behind his projection. Bitcoin has a younger investor base, he said, while gold tends to attract older investors. He also expects Bitcoin to see greater adoption among institutional investors as the asset matures and volatility declines.

He further pointed to stronger enthusiasm and sales efforts around Bitcoin ETFs. While gold ETFs receive limited promotional attention, he noted, dozens of wholesalers have expertise in both crypto and gold, and traditional investors are actively educating clients about Bitcoin ETFs.

JPMorgan Sees Room for Bitcoin ETFs to Catch Up

Bitcoin could receive more support than gold if investors reduce their hedges through exchange-traded funds, according to JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

Bitcoin and gold ETFs both recorded inflows following the Federal Reserve's meeting in late July, driven by the return of the debasement trade — a positioning theme in which investors rotate into hard assets such as gold and Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement and fiscal deficits. That trade has weakened over the past week, however, as inflation-adjusted bond yields rose and the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, a crypto market-structure measure.

Gold ETF demand has recovered more of its lost ground than Bitcoin ETF demand. Gold funds have now recouped all of the outflows recorded earlier this year, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered roughly half. JPMorgan's analysts added that demand for Bitcoin ETFs has weakened in recent days, leaving more room for a recovery if the news flow improves.

Futures positioning remains elevated in both gold and Bitcoin, the analysts noted, a sign that both assets are currently experiencing some form of institutional demand. The key difference lies in ETF short interest: short interest in BlackRock's IBIT remains near its highest level of the year, while short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is below its historical average.

Bitcoin ETFs Return to Inflows

September has so far been a month of net outflows for Bitcoin ETFs, with withdrawals surging over the past week. On Thursday, Sept. 17, the trend reversed: Farside Investors data showed the funds took in $159 million, led by IBIT's $183.66 million. The single-day rebound, however, was not enough to erase the month's cumulative outflows. Whether the rebound extends across coming sessions, and with it whether Bitcoin ETF demand continues closing its recovery gap with gold, is the near-term question.

Fidelity's FBTC recorded $16.64 million in net outflows, while VanEck's HODL saw $7.57 million in outflows. The remaining Bitcoin ETFs posted zero net flows.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. ETF flows, analyst projections and positioning data do not guarantee future Bitcoin performance.