Bitcoin has dropped 4.1% this week after U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $484.9 million on Wednesday, extending a slide that has persisted since the start of October. The losses have come in a month that is historically green for the leading cryptocurrency—one that traders have long nicknamed "Uptober."

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which won U.S. regulatory approval in January 2024 and hold the asset directly, have become one of the main channels through which institutional money reaches Bitcoin, and their daily flows are closely watched as a gauge of that demand.

Analysts told Decrypt they are not treating the calendar as a reliable bottom for Bitcoin, warning that more bleeding could lie ahead, with support levels as low as $72,000 in play.

Per CoinGecko data, Bitcoin hit lows of $80,427 during the past week and was recently trading just under $83,000, down 4.1% over seven days. On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Dastan, Decrypt's parent company, users put a 79% chance on Bitcoin ending the week above $82,000, and just a 28% chance of it topping $84,000.

"From a market-structure perspective, the $83,000 region remains an interesting level," Luke Deans, Senior Research Associate at Bitwise Europe, told Decrypt. "This area combines the average ETF cost basis with the prior technical higher-high threshold and has been tested repeatedly over recent weeks.n

Where is support?

With the price below $83,000, attention has turned to where the next layers of support sit. In technical analysis, support refers to price zones where buying interest has historically slowed or reversed declines. Bitcoin slipped below that level early Thursday morning and is currently attempting to recover. Deans said the reaction will be "informative": if the level continues to struggle, lower structural support targets should be considered.

Ananda Banerjee, Founder and Principal Quantitative Researcher at analysis firm Charlie Quant Lab, told Decrypt he sees the strongest support at $77,000. On-chain metrics, he said, show a notable cluster of the Bitcoin supply was bought at that level. Deans agreed that the True Market Mean—the average acquisition price of active investors—sits near $77,000.

Deans also sees lower support at $74,000, marked by the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, which represents the average acquisition price of newer market participants. The 200-day moving average, at $72,000, provides an independent technical reference alongside the on-chain measures, he added.

"Through this lens, Bitcoin could fall materially from current levels and still remain within what we would consider a constructive risk-on structure," Deans told Decrypt. "A move into the $72,000 to $77,000 region would represent a strong retest of the broader transition zone."

If that area is successfully defended, a range that previously acted as resistance for Bitcoin would be turned into support—a positive signal, according to Deans. Failing to defend the zone, however, could "impair current market structure."

Still, Bitcoin tested a move above $87,000 at the start of the week, albeit unsuccessfully. Bitfinex analysts told Decrypt the failure was driven "mainly by futures positioning rather than spot demand."
"Spot demand remains the missing piece," they added, noting that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $241.1 million in the week of September 28 to October 2, against $2.39 billion the week before. "The average ETF investor is back at breakeven for the first time since January, a level at which inflows have historically been slow," they said.

Can-Luca Köymen, Investment Strategist at Sygnum Bank, likewise told Decrypt that low spot volume is stunting Bitcoin's price action.

Bitfinex analysts believe Bitcoin's consolidation range sits between $84,000 and its yearly open of $87,722—the price at which Bitcoin started the year. They said September CPI data, due October 14, could put an end to that range, alongside a pickup in ETF flows.

Bitcoin ETFs lost $484.9 million on Wednesday, the worst single-day outflow since June 25, according to Decrypt's ETF tracker. BlackRock's IBIT took the biggest hit at $207.7 million, with Fidelity's FBTC next at $105.1 million. Experts say those flows need to reverse for a successful Uptober—but with the funds shedding a further $244 million on Thursday, the direction of travel is still downwards.

Is Uptober cancelled?

So, is Uptober over? Most experts Decrypt spoke to were hesitant to declare the month cancelled over a single week of red action. Still, they cautioned against basing investment decisions on a hyped-up month rather than on fundamentals.

"Historical evidence supports October strength," Jake Kennis, Senior Research Analyst at Nansen, told Decrypt. "Bitcoin has posted a median October return of roughly 14% since 2013, with 10 of the past 13 Octobers finishing positive."

"But ultimately liquidity, positioning, macro conditions, and underlying demand are more important drivers than any specific date," he added.