Crypto is losing its flow support, and last week's fund-flow numbers made it plain. According to Wintermute, Bitcoin fell 3.2% and Ethereum dropped 7.0% as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $679 million in net outflows and Ethereum ETFs lost $542 million. The Bitcoin figure was the largest weekly total since late June. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 set a record.

Spot ETF flows are widely tracked as a public gauge of institutional demand for the asset class, which is why weekly numbers of this size draw attention well beyond crypto — they show money leaving the funds outright rather than merely changing hands.

Wintermute Points to a Missing Earnings Foundation

The firm says the split between crypto and equities comes down to earnings. Q3 earnings growth estimates for the S&P 500 sit near 29% year over year and are still rising, and that profit growth is paying for a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.24%.

Crypto has no earnings to offset those yields. In Wintermute's view, it rises only while new money keeps arriving — and when flows reversed, nothing sat underneath the price.

The trigger landed Wednesday. FOMC minutes — the Federal Reserve's official account of its most recent policy meeting — showed most officials expect another hike by year-end, with no mention of cuts. Wintermute noted that the debate has shifted from when the Fed eases to how far it tightens.

Bitcoin opened the week near $86,000 to $87,000 and failed there for a third time on Tuesday. It slid to roughly $83,000 after the minutes, then bottomed near $80,400 on Thursday before recovering to the mid-$83,000s by Monday as oil eased.

CoinGlass data shows $1.19 billion in liquidations over 24 hours around Thursday's low, about $1.06 billion of which came from long positions. Liquidations are the automatic closure of leveraged positions when the market moves against them, so the long-heavy tally reflects bullish leverage being washed out in the drop. Wintermute called the move a flush.

— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) October 13, 2026

Why Ethereum and Altcoins Fell Harder Than Bitcoin

Bitcoin held up better than the rest of the market, with its dominance rising toward 59.5% on a reported basis. Wintermute called that the clearest internal signal of the week.

Ethereum fell the most because it carried a second shock: a researcher associated with the Ethereum Foundation urged users to migrate to new addresses.

Altcoins dropped 2.9% overall. Only 11 of 66 large-cap altcoins above $1 billion finished green, and the median lost 3.7%. UNI fell 15.8% after a strong run the prior month.

Capital that left DeFi and large caps rotated into AI-related names, with NEAR the standout. Wintermute said it could not confirm the causes cited for that move, which included post-quantum signature support and a short squeeze.

What the Outflows Mean for Traders Now

Wintermute laid out two conditions before turning bullish again: long-term yields must settle, and spot ETF flows must return to net inflows. The firm sees yields as unlikely to ease before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Until then, Bitcoin remains a high-beta, negative-skew of the equity market — a trade that amplifies equity moves while skewing toward worse outcomes on the downside — and Wintermute would not chase lower-quality altcoins on anything resembling a rally. It still calls the cycle early and stays constructive long term.

The firm said it would turn cautious if the U.S. 30-year yield breaks above 5.64%, the level it printed on September 30, and would grow wary if Bitcoin keeps stalling around $82,500.

Two catalysts arrive this week. September CPI data on Wednesday will show whether energy inflation is spreading into core prices, and AI-related and financial earnings will also start landing. Both speak directly to the variables Wintermute flagged: the path of yields and the equity earnings power competing with crypto for capital.

For Wintermute, the ETF outflows signal that crypto's rally depended on fresh money rather than earnings. Without returning inflows and calmer yields, the firm sees downside risk remaining open.

This article is based on reporting by Live Bitcoin News, citing data and commentary from Wintermute.