Bitcoin slipped 1% over the past 24 hours, but its recovery remains within a broader consolidation that followed the cryptocurrency's recent advance toward $85,000. The retreat from that level has been interpreted as profit-taking after a strong rally, and continued institutional inflows still support the bullish case — although shorter-term charts suggest the correction has not necessarily finished.

Attention is now turning to upcoming US economic releases, and to whether Bitcoin can maintain key support if inflation concerns prompt investors to reduce exposure to risk assets.

ETF Inflows Remain a Counterweight to Macro Risks

Institutional demand continues to offset some macroeconomic risks. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold bitcoin directly and trade through conventional brokerage accounts, and their daily flows serve as a closely watched gauge of institutional participation. According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded eight consecutive trading sessions of net inflows, with approximately $3 billion entering the products during that period — a total approaching the amount attracted throughout August.

The sustained inflows indicate that investors continued allocating capital to Bitcoin exposure despite the recent pullback.

ETF buying, however, does not eliminate selling pressure elsewhere in the market. Existing holders taking profits, shifts in leveraged positioning, and reactions to economic data can still interrupt an advance. The next test is whether inflows remain strong enough to support demand as Bitcoin its nearby technical levels.

Inflation Expectations Create a Near-Term Test

US inflation and economic growth figures are important potential catalysts for Bitcoin. Analysts expect a 0.4% monthly increase in the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, up from 0.2% the previous month. They also forecast 1.5% second-quarter GDP growth, following a 2% first-quarter reading. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, which is why its monthly readings carry outsized weight for interest-rate expectations.

A stronger-than-expected inflation figure could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy. Higher interest rates can pressure cryptocurrencies by increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets and making financial conditions less supportive of speculative investment.

The probability of an October Federal Reserve rate increase now stands at 68%, according to FedWatch data. That figure represents a market-implied estimate at the time of the analysis, rather than a confirmed policy decision.

Inflation above expectations could weigh on Bitcoin's recovery. A softer reading could ease some of that pressure, although the market's response would also depend on the growth figures and how investors interpret the policy outlook. Together, the releases are positioned to influence interest-rate expectations and short-term market direction.

Short-Term Chart Points to an Unfinished Pullback

Bitcoin's momentum indicators present a mixed picture across time frames. The Relative Strength Index — a momentum gauge in which readings above 70 are traditionally viewed as overbought and below 30 as oversold — remains near 60, supporting the view that broader momentum is still constructive, while sentiment readings in "Greed" territory suggest confidence remains elevated.

On the four-hour chart, however, Bitcoin has formed lower highs and lower lows. That structure indicates sellers continue to influence short-term price action, even while the broader recovery remains intact.

The $80,000–$82,000 zone is a potential support area where buyers could return. A rebound from there would strengthen the consolidation scenario, while a decisive break below the area would weaken the proposed setup.

If Bitcoin holds the $80,000–$82,000 zone and buying momentum improves, the next major test would be another attempt to clear $85,000. A sustained breakout above that barrier could open a path toward the $90,000 range and, potentially, $100,000 as longer-term possibilities if bullish momentum persists.

Those targets remain conditional. Bitcoin must first stabilize through its pullback and overcome resistance, while upcoming economic data could determine whether buyers retain control of the support zone.

This article originally appeared on CoinJournal.