Bitcoin [BTC] spot ETF net flows have reached a cumulative $930.39 million since July 14, according to data from SoSoValue. The figures showed that BTC spot ETFs have recorded net inflows every day since the 14th of the month.

The run marked the first time since May that Bitcoin spot ETF inflows had remained positive for more than five consecutive days. Spot ETF flows are closely watched because the products provide a regulated route for U.S. investors to gain Bitcoin exposure without directly holding the asset, but ETF demand is only one part of overall market liquidity.

Pessimism remains despite ETF flow improvement

Technical indicators have flashed a long-term buy signal for Bitcoin. However, liquidity remained a significant obstacle to any recovery attempt, AMBCrypto reported.

A price breakout without fresh liquidity, particularly in the form of stablecoin netflows, was not considered evidence of a macro bottom for BTC. Stablecoin inflows are often monitored because they can indicate whether deployable capital is entering crypto trading venues, while weak netflows can limit the durability of spot-driven rallies.

Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that the Coinbase Premium Gap has been negative since May 6. According to the analyst, this represented the highest level of pessimism in two years.

The Coinbase premium measures the difference between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase Advanced, a venue used by institutions and professional traders, and Binance, which is more retail-dominated.

A negative trend indicates persistent selling pressure from smart money, even as Bitcoin attempted rallies toward $70k over the past month.

Darkfost concluded that investors tend to limit risk when macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions are unstable, as they have been in recent months.

Leverage continues to leave the Bitcoin market

Bitcoin’s price has been rising gradually since July 1, when it reached a swing low of $57,800. The advance has coincided with a decline in realized volatility.

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. compared Bitcoin’s price and its 200DMA with 1-week realized volatility smoothed by the 30DMA.

Since 2016, 92% of trading days have recorded realized volatility above current levels.

The combination of falling realized volatility and rising prices showed that the latest rebound occurred without sharp price swings. In crypto markets, lower volatility can reflect calmer trading conditions, but it can also point to reduced participation when it appears alongside declining derivatives activity.

The Open Interest to market capitalization ratio, which measures whether derivatives exposure is rising or falling relative to price trends, turned negative in early July and has remained negative for 21 consecutive days.

That decline suggests derivatives leverage has continued to fall even as Bitcoin recovered, reducing the immediate risk of a large liquidation-driven move. Compared with one month earlier, these conditions lowered the threat of a liquidation cascade.

Axel Adler Jr. concluded that the market remained in a low-activity phase. A sustained price move beyond the $66k-$72k range, together with further reduction in derivatives leverage, would be needed to provide a major signal of market recovery.

Bitcoin ETF inflows have improved, while realized volatility has fallen. Derivatives leverage has also declined as prices moved higher, but a breach of $66k-$72k is still needed to significantly reduce the longer-term risk of further bearishness.