Bitcoin Faces Downward Pressure: Four Factors That Could Drive BTC Lower Next Week

Bitcoin made multiple unsuccessful attempts to break above $65,000 over the past week, and a combination of macroeconomic and internal market signals now suggests the possibility of further downside.

1. Post-FOMC Price Correction Pattern

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to leave interest rates unchanged. While this outcome was arguably less hawkish than a potential rate hike, historical data shows that recent FOMC meetings have consistently been followed by Bitcoin price pullbacks, regardless of the policy decision. The Fed's rate stance directly influences liquidity conditions and investor appetite for risk assets, and Bitcoin has increasingly mirrored the risk-on, risk-off dynamics of traditional markets in response to monetary policy signals. That pattern materialized again, with BTC declining approximately $3,000 over the past several days. By Friday, Bitcoin had fallen to a two-week low of $62,400.

2. Middle East Escalation

Geopolitical tensions have intensified over the past 24 hours, posing additional headwinds for risk-on assets such as Bitcoin. Iran reportedly struck oil tankers operating under US escort in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump has ordered a new military strike against Iran aimed at forcing a surrender. CBS News further reported that the United States intends to target Iranian energy assets, with the escalation anticipated to commence over the weekend. During periods of acute geopolitical uncertainty, investors have historically rotated into safe-haven assets such as gold and US Treasuries; Bitcoin, despite occasional characterization as "digital gold," has frequently traded in step with equities and other risk assets during such episodes.

3. Bitcoin ETF Outflows

Spot Bitcoin exchange-tranded funds reversed their positive momentum last week after three consecutive weeks of net inflows totaling over $200 million. Since their SEC approval in January 2024, these ETFs have become a primary institutional gateway to Bitcoin exposure, making their weekly flow data a closely watched barometer of institutional positioning. The latest week saw net outflows of $61.53 million. The turning point came on Friday, when investors withdrew more than $265 million, fully erasing the $233 million in net inflows recorded on Thursday.

4. Technical Sell Signal

Analyst Ali Martinez noted that the TD Sequential indicator — a technical metric designed to identify potential trend reversals — has flashed a major sell signal on Bitcoin's 3-day chart. Martinez pointed out that this signal appears at the start of August, a month that has historically been associated with BTC pullbacks. "History doesn't have to repeat, but it's a setup worth watching," he added.

A Counterargument: The Bullish Case

Not all analysts share the bearish outlook. Michaël van de Poppe highlighted Bitcoin's historical correlation with the Nasdaq and South Korea's KOSPI index, both of which posted significant gains at the close of the business week. KOSPI surged approximately 18%.

"The last time this happened, Bitcoin rallied to $83,000," van de Poppe said, offering a contrasting perspective to Martinez's warning.

An enormous bounce on the Nasdaq and therefore a massive weekly candle, just as $KOSPI has bounced upwards. I repeat, the last time this happened, #Bitcoin rallied to $83,000. I would expect to see a strong start of August coming week for #Bitcoin as a response to the current… — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 31, 2026