Bitcoin Slides Below $83,000 to October Low as US Bond Yields Hit 24-Year Highs on Iran Tensions
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin dropped to $82,734 on Bitstamp, a new October low that broke below $83,000 and invalidated support from its 21-day simple moving average at $83,850.
- •Brent crude climbed to $102 per barrel and WTI to $91 after an adviser to Iran's Revolutionary Guards' commander declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and fully under Iranian control until the country's demands are met.
- •US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields reached 5.36% and 5.73%, marking 24-year highs, while the S&P 500 declined 0.6% to 7,773 points after hitting all-time highs on Tuesday.
- •CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin open interest fell nearly 10%, from about $28.8 billion to $26.0 billion since September 22, signaling limited willingness among futures traders to take on risk amid subdued spot demand.
- •CryptoQuant identified $69,500, the average cost basis of short-term Bitcoin holders, as a level to monitor on higher time frames if the drawdown continues.
Bitcoin (BTC) extended its losses at Wednesday's Wall Street open as oil prices gained on US-Iran war headlines and United States stocks pulled back from all-time highs. The largest cryptocurrency fell to $82,734 on Bitstamp, marking its lowest traded levels so far in October, while US bond yields spiked to new 24-year highs and Brent crude oil rose to $102 per barrel following Iranian comments on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Onchain analysis, meanwhile, warns of lackluster Bitcoin demand across both spot and derivatives markets.
Bond yields set new 24-year high on Iran oil clampdown
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping below $83,000, setting new month-to-date lows. The downside move came as macro pressures returned to the fore across traditional markets.
Mixed signals over oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude oil to $102 per barrel on the day, while WTI crude reached $91. The strait is one of the world's most important maritime transit routes for oil, and its status is tracked closely by energy traders because disruptions there tend to feed quickly into global crude benchmarks.
An adviser to Iran's Revolutionary Guards' commander, quoted by Reuters on the day, warned of a clampdown on traffic that Iran had “deemed illegal.”
“The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it. This situation will continue until Iran's legitimate demands are met,” he said.
US bond yields, highly sensitive to concerns about inflation and government debt loads worldwide, reacted with new 24-year highs. The 10-year and 30-year yields reached 5.36% and 5.73%, respectively. Benchmark yields at these tenors anchor borrowing costs across the economy, and moves of this kind are monitored across asset classes because they shape the backdrop against which risk assets, from equities to cryptocurrencies, are traded.
At the same time, US stock markets headed lower after hitting fresh all-time highs on Tuesday. The S&P 500 traded down 0.6% on the day to 7,773 points.
Muhammad Qubbaj, co-head of North America interest rate product sales and trading at Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities, predicted that yields would “likely be under ongoing pressure amid elevated energy prices and subdued demand from institutional investors,” as reported on Tuesday. In a webinar, he forecast that rising oil prices would “likely be the key factor in longer-term interest rates.”
Bitcoin demand lacking as upside momentum fades
With Bitcoin still unable to break through overhead ask liquidity around $87,000, analysis warned of waning demand on both spot and derivatives markets. Open interest — the total value of outstanding futures contracts — is a standard gauge of leveraged participation, and a falling reading means contracts are being closed faster than new ones are opened.
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“Since September 22, Bitcoin has remained at a similar price level, while Bitcoin Open Interest has declined by nearly 10%, from approximately $28.8B to $26.0B,” onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported on Wednesday. “This suggests that, amid subdued spot demand, futures traders have also shown limited willingness to take on additional risk.”
The move to $83,000 invalidated support previously provided by Bitcoin's 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83,850. CryptoQuant added that on higher time frames, $69,500 is worth monitoring as the average cost basis for Bitcoin short-term holders — entities holding a given allocation without selling for up to six months. Cost-basis levels of this kind approximate the price at which recent buyers acquired their coins and are widely used by onchain analysts as reference points when assessing holder behavior during drawdowns. With Brent crude above $100 per barrel, US yields at multi-decade highs, and the $87,000 ask zone still capping spot price, those onchain markers, alongside headlines on Hormuz shipping traffic, framed the immediate checklist for market observers.
