Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $82,776.30 on Wednesday and last traded at $83,178.54, down 2.76% on the day, as Brent crude climbed back above $101 per barrel and bond yields surged.

The daily chart still shows a strong uptrend, but short-term technical indicators have moved into oversold territory. On prediction market Myriad, traders give 67% odds that Bitcoin touches $80,000 at some point in October, and 55% odds of a touch of $87,500.

It was a rough morning for the asset. Bitcoin opened the day at $85,543.66, then slid sharply within a few hours, threatening a key support level and scaring off traders in the process. The roughly 3.2% drop proved expensive for leveraged positions: about $969 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, of which $644.47 million were longs, according to CoinGlass.

What happened, and what comes next? The culprit is not purely a crypto story.

Stocks slip, oil climbs, bond yields spike

The sell-off stretched across markets. Wall Street backed off record highs in morning trading, with the S&P 500 down 0.59% at 7,772.60 and the Nasdaq off 0.71%, per Yahoo Finance.

The common denominator is oil. Brent crude is back above $101 a barrel, the 10-year Treasury yield is near 5.34 and the 30-year yield hit 5.70% — its highest level since 2002. Long-dated Treasury yields serve as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy, from mortgages to corporate loans. Even gold, the classic safe haven, slipped 1.53% to $4,123.10.

Oil is on edge because ship attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz keep piling up. The waterway is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for global oil shipments. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has logged at least one incident per day in the strait or the Gulf of Aden since October 2, Al Jazeera reports. On Monday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard ordered a tanker entering the strait to turn around or risk attack.

Pricier oil stokes inflation fears, which push yields higher and weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin. Crude has bitten Bitcoin before: in June, BTC sank to $65,590 as Brent climbed to $96 amid Middle East tensions. Even after Wednesday's slide, Bitcoin remains about 40% above the roughly $59,500 it traded at in late June.

The Federal Reserve added to the unease on Wednesday with the release of minutes from its September 15–16 meeting, per its calendar. Minutes like these offer a detailed public record of the rate debate inside the Fed, which is why markets tend to parse them closely.

Daily bulls, four-hour bears

On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin was rejected near $86,978.45 before the slide began. The dip pushed prices below $83,000, where buyers stepped in and prices bounced — giving traders some reason to breathe.

Fibonacci retracements, lines that mark where a price may pause based on percentages of a prior move, put the most relevant intraday levels at $83,768.01 and $84,877.38. Both now act as resistance.

The four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100, read 32.2 — clearly oversold after the quick panic attack. Intraday momentum is bearish, but this is also the zone where bargain hunters tend to show up, positioning for gains on longer time frames.

Zoom out, and the daily picture is sturdier. The daily Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 42.8, still a strong bullish trend with buyers ahead of sellers, while the daily RSI sits at 52.5 — neutral territory — meaning sell-off has barely dented momentum on the larger timeframe.

Exponential moving averages (EMAs), which track average price over a set window while weighting recent prices more heavily, point the same way: the 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day on both the daily and four-hour charts, which typically signals the broader uptrend has not broken. The daily squeeze remains active, with a momentum reading of 1.17 that is slipping, indicating volatility stays compressed.

Notably, the daily low of $82,776.30 stopped about $150 above the Fibonacci retracement near $82,626.41.

Macro lit the fuse, leverage fed the fire

As oil and yields rose, stocks, gold and Bitcoin sold off together, suggesting this is not a crypto-specific problem. When prices fall, exchanges force-close leveraged positions that can no longer cover their losses, and those forced sales drive prices lower still.

Traders on Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, are already pricing in more pain. As of this writing, the BTC lows in October market gives 92% odds that Bitcoin touches $82,500 this month, 67% for $80,000 and 43% for $77,500.

Upside bets are cooler. The BTC highs in October market carries 55% odds of a touch of $87,500 and 36% odds for $90,000. Both markets pay out on Binance price touches rather than closes, meaning a drop and a rally can both resolve "yes" in the same month. Myriad also hosts a market on Bitcoin's price on October 11 at 4 p.m. UTC.

For the bulls to argue the dip is over, Bitcoin needs to retake $84,761.70 — the top of the four-hour trend band — and then the $84,877.38 retracement. If $82,776.30 gives way, the next stops are the four-hour band bottom at $81,567.49 and the daily 50% retracement at $81,165.95.

The Fed minutes and any fresh Hormuz headlines are the catalysts to watch.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.