Bitcoin Falls Below $82,000 as Hot US CPI Print Sends Bond Yields Toward New Highs
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin fell to $81,926 on Bitstamp after September CPI printed at 3.7% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points above the 3.6% market consensus.
- •Gasoline prices rose 9.1% in September, accounting for over half of the monthly headline increase, while core CPI rose 2.6%, also exceeding forecasts.
- •Odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the Oct. 28 meeting jumped to 53.7% from 22.1% the prior day, with a second hike in December priced at 50%.
- •The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.329%, roughly three basis points from 24-year highs, and gold fell to $4,079 per ounce following the CPI release.
- •Econoday analyst Theresa Sheehan suggested soft September payroll data could keep the Fed on hold at the October meeting despite a bias toward a hike in December.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $82,000 after Wednesday's Wall Street open as United States consumer inflation beat expectations, with crypto, gold and stock-market futures all dropping after the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), data from TradingView showed. CPI is among the most closely watched releases on the US economic calendar, feeding directly into Federal Reserve rate expectations and, through them, the liquidity and borrowing-cost backdrop for risk assets such as crypto.
The largest cryptocurrency dropped to $81,926 on Bitstamp as the CPI for September printed at 3.7% year-on-year, 0.1% above majority market consensus of 3.6%, figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed.
Fuel-price increases accounted for the lion's share of the gain, with the rise in fuel costs around the Middle East conflict and the oil-supply crisis conspicuous in the data.
"The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index increased 5.2 percent over the month following a 2.1-percent increase in August," the official BLS release stated.
Underlying pressures were also firmer than forecast. Core CPI, which strips out energy and food prices, rose 2.6% year-on-year, coming in 0.1% above expectations and confirming that inflation increased across the board rather than being confined to energy.
Commenting on the figures, Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group, argued that elevated readings should by now be a foregone conclusion.\n"The only surprise is that investors keep getting surprised by broad-based inflation. And we've yet to see the full impact of higher diesel prices and the AI boom," he told CNBC.
Markets raise odds of an October Fed hike
The latest data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed markets adjusting their Federal Reserve policy expectations in response. A majority now favor a 25-basis-point interest-rate hike at the Fed's upcoming meeting on Oct. 28, with the odds of that outcome at 53.7%, up from 22.1% the day prior. For December, the odds of a second 25-basis-point hike stood at 50%.
Theresa Sheehan, economic analyst at Econoday, suggested that soft labor data could still keep the central bank on the sidelines in the near term.
"Taken in combination with the soft payroll numbers in the September employment report, the FOMC is probably on hold for any rate moves at the upcoming October 27-28 meeting although with a definite bias toward a hike in December," she said.
The next key US inflation data release, the September print of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks prices at the producer level, is due on Friday, landing ahead of the Fed's Oct. 27-28 policy meeting, as Cointelegraph reported.
Bond yields surge toward new highs as gold slips
Gold fell as low as $4,079 per ounce on the back of the CPI result, while US bond yields spiked. The 10-year yield, highly sensitive to energy-price triggers, hit 5.329%, around three basis points from new 24-year highs. Yields on 10-year Treasurys serve as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy, from mortgages to corporate debt.
"This is the last thing global bond markets needed. Prior to this number, it looked like the global bond sell-off was calming, but now bond markets are catching on fire again," economist Robin Brooks wrote in a blog post.
Related: CryptoQuant's 3 charts keeping Bitcoin's 'Uptober' thesis valid
BTC price action continued to circle a key area between $82,500 and $83,400, with analysis still waiting for the market to decide whether the zone holds as support.