Bitcoin (BTC) buyers did not rush to “buy the dip” when BTC fell to $57,800 in July, according to onchain analysis, raising questions about whether the move marked the latest bear-market bottom.

Data from the Bitcoin HODL Waves metric showed a muted increase in recently moved coins as BTC/USD dropped below $58,000 at the start of July. Onchain analyst Willy Woo said a single whale may have been among the few investors buying the dip.

The data also prompted further warnings that Bitcoin’s bear market shows no concrete signs of a structural shift based on current price action.

Willy Woo says Bitcoin bottom buyer may have been a lone whale

HODL Waves groups Bitcoin’s supply according to how long coins have remained dormant in their wallets. The resulting chart forms a wave-like pattern over time. The newest supply category — coins that have been dormant for between one and seven days — can provide insight into investor buying activity after significant BTC price movements.

On July 1, BTC/USD briefly fell below $58,000, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. Data from Look Into Bitcoin showed that the share of supply dormant for one to seven days stood at 1.97% that day. The figure rose only slightly in the following days, reaching 2.35% on July 5.

Woo said the limited onchain movement was unusual compared with other long-term BTC price lows. He noted that buyers had previously rushed to purchase new lows, creating a knee-jerk reaction that was absent in July.

“Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale,” Woo wrote in a post on X this week, describing the event as an “anomaly.” The post is available at https://x.com/rektcapital/status/2098050742787432834.

Woo acknowledged that the interpretation was not conclusive and that institutional investment vehicles could have affected the HODL Waves data.

“I haven’t found any other thesis to explain the anomaly apart from slow steady buying by all investors involved this implies it’s a handful of buyers because if it was many they tend to act like a herd around price action and create spikes in the buying pattern,” he added.

Questions remain over the bear-market floor

The findings add to the debate over whether July marked Bitcoin’s latest bear-market bottom. Opinions diverged as BTC/USD rebounded above $80,000, with previous Bitcoin price cycles suggesting that a new macro low could be needed in the coming months, as Cointelegraph reported in its related analysis: Bitcoin bear market ‘over’ as price metric copies 2023 recovery: CryptoQuant CEO.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital said in his latest analysis that the bear-market structure appeared to remain intact, characterized by a series of lower highs within a broader downtrend.

“At this very moment, Bitcoin is positioned for a repeat of bearish price history. However, Bitcoin has a few more days to turn things around before the new Weekly Close, if it can. A Weekly Close below ~$78300 could set price up for a breakdown like in May,” he wrote on Thursday.

Buyer appetite rebounded in August, however. United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $3.8 billion in net inflows over a three-week period.