James Check, founder and lead analyst at Checkonchain, believes Bitcoin may have already carved out its cycle bottom, pointing to two distinct capitulation events and shifting holder behavior as evidence that the market has largely absorbed its selling pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) peaked at just over $126,000 in October 2025 and was changing hands near $77,400 at the time of writing — roughly 39% beneath its all-time high. A segment of traders still anticipates a lower low in October 2026, in line with Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle — the pattern loosely associated with its halving events, which cut new coin issuance roughly every four years. In July, analyst Benjamin Cowen argued that cycle-duration data, combined with the United States midterm-election calendar, suggested a fourth-quarter bottoming window.

Check laid out his case in an interview on Cointelegraph's Proof of Thesis show He characterized Bitcoin's February slide toward $60,000 as a "price-pain capitulation," a phase in which investors who accumulated near the top exited at heavy losses. A second episode, which he labeled a "time-pain capitulation," played out around $58,000 in June and July after months of sideways trading left holders doubting whether Bitcoin would recover.

"What's the between $58,000 and $59,000 or $60,000? Nothing," Check told Cointelegraph. "It's the six months that separated them. That's the actual difference."

That reading runs counter to the October-low thesis, implying that the capitulation signals typically tied to a bear-market floor surfaced months earlier. It also reflects a broader divide in how analysts read the market: calendar-driven cycle models on one side, and on-chain evidence on the other.

Check cited on-chain figures to support his view: approximately $300 billion in Bitcoin cost basis — the price level at which outstanding coins were last acquired — is concentrated between $58,000 and $70,000, and roughly 4 million BTC moved from unrealized loss into profit during the subsequent recovery. He added that long-term holders, a cohort analysts conventionally define as coins held for at least 155 days, now control about 80% of Bitcoin wealth and are likelier to hold out for substantially higher prices than to sell into a short-term rebound.

The four-year cycle misleads traders

In Check's view, anchoring decisions to the four-year cycle is a mistake, since there is no mechanical reason for the pattern to repeat.

"Ask, 'Well, now what do I do?' long before your compass breaks," he told Cointelegraph. "It's like a broken clock. It's right twice a day. Just assume it's broken and find something better."

Historical cycle dates, he said, do not explain why investors capitulate. Traders should instead scrutinize cost basis, unrealized and realized losses, holder profitability, and whether experienced investors are accumulating or distributing their coins. Calendar dates, in his framework, should serve only as context once evidence of market exhaustion or capitulation has already emerged.

"Look for the evidence, not the calendar," Check said.

In related coverage, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin treasuries bought just 5.9K BTC over three months as paper losses lingered.

Grayscale researcher also sees a $58,000 bottom

Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, reached a similar conclusion in a recent interview on Cointelegraph's Trade Secrets show.

"I'm willing to stick my neck out and make a guess that prices bottomed back at $58,000 at the end of June," Pandl told Cointelegraph.

Pandl observed that the downturn produced less despair than previous Bitcoin bear markets, but then followed a bull market that also generated less euphoria — a combination that could yield a more contained decline. He also highlighted Bitcoin's ability to absorb adverse developments without continuing to fall.

"When price in an asset class, whether it's crypto or anything else, stops going down on bad news, that's usually a sign that it's oversold," Pandl said.

On-chain evidence, however, remains mixed. HODL Waves data — a metric that sorts Bitcoin's supply by how recently each coin last moved — showed that supply held for one to seven days rose only from 1.97% on July 1 to 2.35% on July 5, a reading analyst Willy Woo interpreted as an unusually muted response from dip buyers. On the other hand, CryptoQuant data indicated that short-term holders had remained partially profitable for 30 consecutive days — the longest such stretch of 2026, and a pattern the analytics firm said has characterized previous Bitcoin market recoveries. Those dueling datasets frame what on-chain analysts will be watching from here: whether short-term holder profitability endures, and whether fresh-buyer activity strengthens.

Cointelegraph Magazine separately examined whether Bitcoin treasury firms can outperform BTC, and whether the risk involved is worth taking.