Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.com, has published an updated historical cycle comparison chart suggesting that Bitcoin's recent low of $57,800 may represent the major bottom of the current cycle.

Aligning the four historical cycles by their bull market peaks, Zhuoer argues that the duration and magnitude of the current decline are not materially different from the previous three cycles. In his view, a large number of market participants have already missed the initial rally, and a period of sideways consolidation would likely reignite fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) sentiment, a dynamic that has historically made further declines harder to sustain.

That framing also helps explain why he treats the current range as more relevant than a single price call. Drawing a parallel to the "golden pit" opportunity at the end of 2021, Zhuoer cautions that any forthcoming pullback may prove fleeting. He reiterated a clear tactical plan for those still on the sidelines: if Bitcoin retreats to the $67,000–$72,000 range and selling pressure visibly weakens, capital should be deployed immediately. Failing that, positions should be established at prevailing market prices no later than the end of October, regardless of the specific price level.

"Missing out on an entire future bull market is way scarier than missing this little uptick right now," he stated.

Zhuoer also reflected on his own recent trading record, acknowledging that his prior bearish stance proved "ridiculously wrong" and that his ability to capture the August rebound stemmed from a disciplined swing-trading framework, automated price alerts, and the liquidity advantages of perpetual contracts rather than from accurate directional forecasting. He noted that without those structural safeguards, he would likely have remained in cash alongside other cycle theorists who were caught fully in stablecoins.

He detailed the thesis in a post on X dated August 23, 2026 (x.com/Jiangzhuoer2):

更新一下全历史周期图， （四周期按牛市最高点对齐） 如果5.78w是这轮的大底， 看看图就知道时间和跌幅， 和前三次周期差多少了。 所以这轮踏空的人茫茫多， 只要横盘震荡一段时间， fomo情绪就会起来， 后面就很难跌下去了。 后续剧本可以参考2021年底的黄金坑， 可能回调接上车的机会， 只有一瞬… pic.twitter.com/Chcu2QiA5C

— 江卓尔_莱比特矿池 (@Jiangzhuoer2) August 23, 2026

Ethereum's Structural Outperformance and Macro Catalysts

Zhuoer's analysis extends beyond Bitcoin, identifying Ethereum as the primary engine of the emerging bull market rather than a secondary beneficiary of Bitcoin's momentum. He observes that the ETH/BTC ratio has mounted a second wave of appreciation following its initial surge, a pattern he interprets as evidence of Ethereum's relative strength within the cycle.

The underlying catalyst, in his view, is a shift in the United States' posture toward blockchain technology: the Donald Trump administration's embrace of on-chain infrastructure is poised to drive tokenization of U.S. financial assets — including dollars, equities, and bonds — through smart-contract-based markets. In that context, Ethereum is positioned as the network most directly tied to the infrastructure he expects to benefit from broader tokenization activity.

While he offered illustrative price targets — Bitcoin at $200,000 with ETH/BTC at 0.1, implying a $20,000 ETH — he characterized these figures as uncalculated examples. Throughout his commentary, Zhuoer emphasized that prediction itself is inherently probabilistic and secondary to rigorous execution and risk management.

"Predictions aren't important," he noted. "What's important is execution — if right, hold on; if wrong, stop-loss."

Source: Metaverse Post