Bitcoin Cup and Handle Breakout Targets Upside as Spot ETF Inflows Surpass $626M

Bitcoin traded at $64,742 on August 6, 2026, breaking out of a cup and handle formation on the daily chart. The technical development coincides with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording their strongest weekly inflow since May and an on-chain cycle bottom signal reappearing on Net Capital Flows.

Cup and Handle Completion with RSI Reclaiming 50

The daily chart shows BTC completing a cup and handle pattern—a classical technical structure in which a rounded recovery (the cup) is followed by a shallow consolidation (the handle) before a breakout above the prior high. This instance began forming at the June low near $57,700 and extended through the August recovery. The cup base developed through June and early July. Price then recovered to retest the neckline near $65,000 before pulling back to form the handle between $62,000 and $64,500. Bitcoin is now breaking above the neckline. The August 6 session opened at $64,603, reached $64,944, and was holding at $64,742.

The Relative Strength Index stood at 53.92, above the neutral 50 line for the first time since the July highs, indicating a momentum shift in favor of buyers. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average at $64,061 and the 50-day EMA at $64,611 were both clustered just below the current price and had been reclaimed.

The 100-day EMA at $66,988 represents the next upside target, while the 200-day EMA at $72,494 serves as the longer-term ceiling. The $62,000 horizontal support is the critical level that must hold on any pullback to keep the cup and handle structure intact.

Spot ETF Inflows Reach $626M with Two Sessions Remaining

Spot Bitcoin ETFs—investment vehicles approved by the SEC in January 2024 that hold Bitcoin directly and trade on major U.S. exchanges, giving regulated access to institutional and retail investors—recorded $626 million in net inflows through the first three trading sessions of the week ending August 5, according to data from SoSoValue, with Wednesday and Thursday still to close. That total already represents the strongest weekly figure since early May, when the week of May 8 brought in $622.75 million. Should the pace continue through the remaining sessions, it would mark the best ETF week in approximately three months.

August 5 alone accounted for $244.42 million, the largest single-day inflow of the week. BlackRock's IBIT led with $196.83 million, followed by ARK and 21Shares' ARKB at $37.63 million, Fidelity's FBTC at $11.28 million, and Bitwise's BITB at $10.56 million. VanEck's HODL was the sole product to register an outflow, at $14.67 million. Cumulative net inflows across all products now stand at $51.95 billion, with total net assets at $79.21 billion.

The contrast with the prior week is notable. The week of July 31 posted a net outflow of $61.53 million, driven primarily by a single negative session on July 31. The inflows recorded over the three subsequent days more than offset that figure in a single session.

Glassnode Report: Bottom Signals Building but Demand Engine Absent

Glassnode, a blockchain analytics platform that tracks on-chain activity and capital movements across the Bitcoin network, released its latest report characterizing the Bitcoin market as one where bottom signals are accumulating, though a critical component remains absent. On-chain data indicates that price compression has reached levels that have historically preceded significant upward moves. However, those past recoveries were supported by institutional buyers actively absorbing supply in the background—a condition not currently in place. Spot ETFs returned 65,800 BTC in June alone, marking their worst month on record.

The options market reinforces this picture. Traders are paying the lowest premium on record for upside exposure, at approximately 23% implied volatility, while demand for downside protection is similarly thin. Glassnode's interpretation is that such periods of compressed volatility tend to resolve forcefully, and when the move arrives, most participants will not be positioned for it, resulting in late-stage price chasing.

Bitcoin Net Capital Flows Signal Cycle Bottom

Analyst Ali Martinez noted on X that Bitcoin's Net Capital Flow—a metric tracking the aggregate value of coins entering the network minus those leaving—is exhibiting the same bullish divergence against price that marked the previous cycle bottom, which preceded a rally from $15,000 to $126,000. The signal emerges when capital flows turn positive while price remains compressed, a pattern that has historically preceded major recoveries.

BITCOIN MARKET BOTTOM The last bullish divergence between the $BTC price and Net Capital Flows marked the cycle bottom. What followed was a bull run from $15,000 to $126,000. The same signal is back. pic.twitter.com/suckGSld8s
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) August 5, 2026

Technical Outlook: Upside and Downside Scenarios

Upside Scenario — Target: $66,988 (100-day EMA). The cup and handle breakout sustains above the $64,000 neckline on a daily close, with RSI holding above 50 to confirm the momentum shift. Weekly ETF inflows extending through Wednesday and Thursday push the weekly total above $700 million, indicating renewed institutional demand. Short liquidations accelerate the advance as price moves toward the 100-day EMA at $66,988, aligning with Glassnode's historical observation that volatility compressions of this magnitude have predominantly resolved upward.

Downside Scenario — Risk Level: $62,000 (Handle Support). The neckline between $64,000 and $64,500 fails to hold on a daily close, invalidating the cup and handle structure. ETF inflows decelerate through the remaining sessions, and Glassnode's caution regarding the absent demand engine proves warranted as institutional flows fail to maintain momentum. Price retreats toward handle support at $62,000, where buyers would need to intervene to prevent a deeper retest of the cup base near $57,000.