Matt Crosby Says Bitcoin Is “Primed for a Big Move Higher”
Key Takeaways
- •Matt Crosby, research director at Look Into Bitcoin, said in a Bitcoin Magazine video that Bitcoin's quiet consolidation could be a sign of underlying market health rather than weakness.
- •Crosby compared the current price action to a compressed spring and argued Bitcoin is primed for a big move higher based on ETF flows, macroeconomic data, on-chain supply and demand, and derivatives markets.
- •U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which began trading in January 2024, have made daily creations and redemptions a widely watched barometer of institutional participation.
- •The discussion was rooted in the four-year cycle framework, which maps Bitcoin's halvings in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 onto the U.S. presidential election calendar.
- •The conversation also covered mining difficulty, the security budget, corporate Bitcoin treasury companies and their attributed money multiplier effect, and noted that 1% of global capital would imply $275,000 Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s recent price action may appear uneventful, but Matt Crosby, research director at on-chain analytics platform Look Into Bitcoin, says the period of consolidation could be a sign of underlying market health.
In a Bitcoin Magazine video, Crosby compares the current consolidation to a compressed spring, suggesting that it is building potential energy for a possible breakout. He discusses how exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, macroeconomic data, on-chain supply and demand, and derivatives markets factor into his view that Bitcoin is “primed for a big move higher.”
Context helps frame each of those inputs. ETF flows have become a widely watched barometer of institutional participation since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, with daily creations and redemptions now tracked as a demand signal. On-chain measures such as supply in profit and long-term holder selling are how analysts compare current holder behavior with past market cycles, and global M2 — a broad gauge of money supply — is frequently cited by researchers who tie Bitcoin’s trajectory to worldwide liquidity conditions.
Several of the video’s questions are rooted in the four-year cycle framework, which maps Bitcoin’s halvings — 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024, each of which fell in a U.S. presidential election year — onto the political calendar. The discussion also extends to network-level topics such as mining difficulty and the security budget, the growing role of corporate Bitcoin treasury companies and the money multiplier effect attributed to them in the video, and cross-currents like geopolitical developments involving Iran and the prominence of the AI trade. The chapter markers below show where each part of the conversation begins for viewers who want to jump to a specific angle.
Chapters
- 00:00 — Why Bitcoin’s boring price action is healthy
- 02:00 — Is Q4 of a midterm year a good time to stack Bitcoin?
- 03:53 — When will Bitcoin truly decouple?
- 05:47 — How long-term holder selling compares with past cycles
- 07:40 — Supply in profit and Bitcoin’s comparison with silver
- 10:52 — The Everything Indicator and global M2
- 12:47 — Mining difficulty, AI pivots, and the security budget
- 14:30 — Treasury companies and Bitcoin’s money multiplier effect
- 18:03 — Why 1% of global capital means $275K Bitcoin
- 22:14 — Iran, seller exhaustion, and the AI trade
The views and opinions expressed in the show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. The content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing in the show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisers before making financial or business decisions.
This post first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and was written by Patrick Green.
