Bitcoin has closed above its 50-week moving average for the first time in more than 10 months, a development that several analysts say could signal the end of the cryptocurrency's bear market — though some caution that a single weekly close is not enough to confirm it.

According to TradingView, Bitcoin closed the week at $81,159 on Coinbase on Sunday, above its 50-week moving average of $78,788 — a gap of roughly 3%. Weekly closes carry added weight in trend analysis because price can cross a long-term average midweek and reverse before the period ends. The last weekly close above the moving average came on Nov. 9, 2025, and the latest close is also Bitcoin's highest weekly close in four months.

The 50-week moving average, which smooths nearly a full year of weekly closing prices into a single trendline, has long served as a dividing line between Bitcoin's bull and bear phases. In August, Galaxy Research's head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, described the level as acting as a ceiling during bear markets.

"In four of the five completed bear markets, once the 50-week moving average was first broken to the upside, the bear market bottom was definitively 'in,'" Thorn said in a research note. "Essentially, retaking the 50w MA has previously confirmed the end of a bear market," he added.

Galaxy, however, also cautioned in August that while the 50-week moving average is a historically strong indicator that a bear market is over, the signal is not infallible. Of 13 weekly crossings back above the level, two were followed by a lower low, both occurring during the 2021-2022 bear market.

Ben Simpson, founder of crypto research company Collective Shift, said on Tuesday, ahead of the weekly close, that Bitcoin closing above its 50-week moving average would be "the last thing I need to see before I call this a bull market." He noted that Bitcoin gained between 700% and 900% after breaking above the level in 2017, 2020 and 2023.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told Cointelegraph that the latest close added weight to the case that Bitcoin's recovery was underway. "In previous cycles, reclaiming this level has tended to happen after the major low was established and longer-term momentum had started to recover," he said.

Still, Lee said one weekly close was not enough to confirm that Bitcoin had reached its cycle bottom. "What matters now is whether Bitcoin can stay above the 50-week average and continue forming higher lows," he said. "We have seen failed reclaims in previous cycles, particularly when the macro environment remained difficult."

Lee added that the market backdrop is nevertheless stronger than it was earlier in the year, with Bitcoin recovering significantly from its July lows of $57,000. Repeated liquidations have cleared out leverage that had built up in the market, he said, and there are signs of a return of institutional demand.

Related: Bitcoin hits $81K as US bond yields rebound on global oil woes

Meanwhile, crypto trader Craig Cobb told Cointelegraph that the 50-week moving average is not the indicator he watches to determine whether a bull market has begun. Instead, he is looking at $83,000 as a key level for Bitcoin, "which will mean there is no lower high on the monthly chart and therefore the trend is no longer down."

Cobb's second test involves Bitcoin's three-month chart. Under that setup, he is looking for a succession of red quarterly candles that ends with a green candle, followed by a subsequent candle breaking above the green candle's high. Cobb said the red-to-green transition has occurred 15 times in's history; in 11 instances, the high of the first green candle was subsequently broken, and all 11 moves eventually produced a new all-time high.

"So combine $83,000 being broken and the close of the September three-month candle, then a break of the high and I will say the bull market has begun," Cobb said.