No 'Uptober' Yet: Bitcoin Slips 2% in a Month That's Historically Bullish
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin returned above $82,000 on Monday but is down 2% since the start of October, a month that has historically delivered gains for the cryptocurrency.
- •U.S. investors redeemed $228.4 million from spot bitcoin ETFs managed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale last week, and such flows often influence bitcoin's price.
- •Analysts view bitcoin as being in a bull market after most of 2026 was spent below $70,000, even though the asset remains roughly 35% below its all-time high of $126,080.
- •Bitcoin's rally began in August after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases, producing its best run in three years.
- •The asset's momentum was supported by the debasement trade as the dollar weakened in August, and the third quarter marked bitcoin's best three months since 2024.
Bitcoin's price climbed back above $82,000 on Monday after a week of choppy trading curbed its gains, leaving the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization off to a slow start in a month that has historically been bullish for the asset.
The coin was recently trading at close to $82,393, up nearly 2% over the past day but still lower across a seven-day period. Since the beginning of October, bitcoin's price has dropped 2% — a sluggish start to the stretch traders call "Uptober," a month in which the cryptocurrency has typically surged.
The soft open coincided with U.S. investors cashing out of exchange-traded funds last week. Speculators redeemed $228.4 million in shares from the investment vehicles managed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale, according to data from Farside Investors, which tracks daily flows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs.
Flows into the U.S. ETFs often move bitcoin's price, as the funds give investors easy exposure to the asset through shares they can buy in their brokerage accounts. With new flow figures published each trading day, market watchers will be tracking whether last week's redemptions extend deeper into October.
Despite the slow October so far, analysts have said that bitcoin is now in a bull market after spending most of 2026 trading under $70,000 — well below its all-time high of $126,080. Even with the recent bounce above $82,000, the asset sits roughly 35% below that record.
Bitcoin's price began rallying in August after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would more than double the size of its government debt repurchases. The coin posted its best run in three years and its third-best August ever.
The asset has also benefited from the so-called debasement trade, in which investors buy certain assets to hedge against currency devaluation. The dollar slid in value in August. Bitcoin then carried its momentum into September, rising nearly 6% over a 30-day period, and the third quarter marked the coin's best three months since 2024.
After a record third quarter, the question now is whether October can keep the streak alive. Daily ETF flow data and price action around the $82,000 level will offer a running read on whether the month's slow start gives way to the gains the season is historically known for.
This article first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and was written by Mathew Di Salvo.
