Benjamin Cowen described Bitcoin's (BTC) current position as "caught between two fires" in his latest technical analysis video, pointing to a combination of technical levels, four-year cycle dynamics and movements in global equity markets.

Cowen said Bitcoin has been trading between two important areas on the chart: the Bear Market Resistance Band above and the 200-week moving average below. The Bear Market Resistance Band is a technical zone that has historically limited upside during Bitcoin's bear-market phases, while the 200-week moving average is a widely tracked long-term trend indicator that has served as support during major drawdowns. According to his analysis, attempts to move higher have been capped by the resistance band, while declines have continued to find support around the 200-week moving average. He said this structure shows that the market is approaching a decision point and remains consistent with Bitcoin's broader four-year cyclical pattern, which many analysts link to Bitcoin's recurring halving schedule that reduces new supply roughly every four years.

The analyst also connected Bitcoin's July rebound to seasonal and cyclical patterns. He said the seasonal strengthening window that supported the recovery in July is expected to end within two to four weeks. Cowen warned that, as seen in previous midterm election and cycle years such as 2018 and 2022, gains recorded in July could be reversed by weakness in August and September. Historically, the August–September period has been a seasonally weak stretch for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and equities.

Cowen said Bitcoin's current market structure resembles a less volatile version of 2018. In that year, Bitcoin trended lower for much of the year before a sharp sell-off in November compressed prices to cycle lows. In that context, he suggested that a final liquidity event could occur in the last quarter of the year, potentially resetting on-chain indicators.

According to Cowen's analysis, traditional equity markets may play an important role in determining whether Bitcoin reaches its final cycle bottom. The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. equity indices strengthened notably after 2020 as institutional participation in digital assets grew. He said a possible 10% to 20% correction in U.S. stock markets, including the S&P 500, during August or September could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin to form that bottom.

Cowen added that if the S&P 500 peaks in August or September and then enters a pullback, the move could also weigh on Bitcoin's price and contribute to the formation of a cycle low. He framed this scenario as part of the interaction between Bitcoin's technical setup, its historical cycle behavior and broader global market conditions.

While Cowen noted that Bitcoin's positive performance in July was in line with earlier cyclical data, he said that does not necessarily mean the move will be sustained. Citing the reversals that followed similar July rallies in 2018 and 2022, he urged caution over the next two to four weeks.