Bitcoin's next major move is more likely to deliver a 3x to 5x gain from cycle lows than another 10x surge, according to Ki Young Ju, founder of on analytics platform CryptoQuant, who says the Bitcoin bull run has already begun.

In an interview published by Bitcoin Magazine, Ju attributed his more measured multiple expectation to the growing presence of institutions. Spot ETF and custody flows, he argued, dampen volatility in a way earlier market cycles did not experience. The backdrop for that view: US spot Bitcoin ETFs only began trading in January 2024, giving institutions a regulated channel into the asset for the first time — a structural difference from every prior cycle.

Ju also explained why he believes the bear market ended this summer and what on-chain data is showing right now. Among the indicators he discussed: fresh capital entering the market with no more whale selling; the PNL Index and ETFs functioning as the cycle's liquidity channel, a role that puts ETF flow reports among the data sets market watchers now track; and an ETF cost basis in the low-to-mid $80,000s, which he described as the institutional bull-bear line. Such a cost basis reflects the average price at which coins held through ETF channels were last acquired, so it indicates whether that cohort sits in aggregate profit or loss.

The conversation also examined how institutional participation has reshaped on-chain analysis through custodial and accumulation wallets, as well as reading Coinbase's wallet flows to identify who is buying. Ju pointed to nearly $700 billion in realized capitalization — a measure that values each bitcoin at the price of its last on-chain movement, often read as a gauge of capital embedded in the asset — with trillions possible next cycle, said his top signals are behavioral rather than price levels, addressed whether the four-year cycle has been invalidated, and reviewed miner costs and what they imply for price. The four-year framing itself traces to Bitcoin's halving schedule, which has historically anchored how analysts segment market cycles.

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

This article first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.