Bitcoin has moved into the initial phase of a new bull market after a 24% rally flipped key onchain and demand indicators into bullish territory, according to CryptoQuant.

The analytics firm's Bull Score — a composite index built from 10 onchain and market indicators used to gauge where Bitcoin stands in its market cycle — surged to 80 from 30 over the past week, its highest reading since October 2025, with eight of the 10 underlying indicators now flashing bullish.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $80,000 during the rally, but CryptoQuant said a weekly close above its 365-day moving average — currently around $83,000 — is required to confirm the shift to a new bull market. In the firm's framework, the weekly close acts as the confirmation filter: a sustained hold above the long-term average, rather than a brief intraday spike, is what marks the regime change.

The shift has been underpinned by accelerating spot demand, with spot and futures demand growing together for the first time since early October 2025, CryptoQuant said. Separate Cointelegraph reporting shows the pickup extending to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which added $338 million in a day to push a six-day inflow streak to $2.26 billion.

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, also identified the May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next important level for Bitcoin.

"A clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major move through $100,000 and, ultimately, the 2025 record high," Kruger told Cointelegraph.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $79,000, according to CoinGecko data.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs add $338M as six-day inflow streak hits $2.26B

Whales take profits as Bitcoin rally heats up

Despite the bullish signals, CryptoQuant cautioned that the rally may be overheated in the short term, citing rising trader profits, heavy profit-taking by whales and a spike in Bitcoin deposits to exchanges.

Traders' unrealized profit margins have climbed to 20.5%, the highest level since June 2025. CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin fell roughly 30% after the metric reached 19% in early May, when BTC was trading near $82,000.

Short-term holder whales realized about $1.2 billion in profits between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22 — including a record $614 million on Aug. 20 — as Bitcoin traded near $78,000 to $79,000, according to the report.

Bitcoin exchange inflows also climbed to approximately 53,000 BTC, their highest since June, signaling that more coins were moving onto trading platforms where they could be sold.

That leaves two markers for the weeks ahead: the weekly close against the 365-day moving average near $83,000, CryptoQuant's bar for confirming the new bull market, and whether the short-term overheating readings — trader profit margins, whale profit-taking and exchange inflows — ease from their current elevated levels.

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