Bitcoin closed below its 50-week moving average on November 8, ending a run of seven consecutive weekly closes above the long-term technical indicator. The indicator, built from roughly a year of weekly closing prices, smooths out short-term volatility, which is why weekly closes on either side of it serve as a widely referenced gauge of the longer-term trend. Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, compared the breakdown with similar episodes in 2012 and 2020, when Bitcoin's subsequent breaks of the average did not produce new bear-market lows. Thorn shared the analysis in a post on X.

Earlier Cycles Avoided New Lows

Thorn identified two prior instances in which Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average before losing it again. In 2011, Bitcoin dropped from $18.85 in June to $2.20 in November, an 88.3% decline. It reclaimed the average on January 8, 2012, seven weeks after reaching its low, then fell back below it for 20 weeks, touching $4.39 — a price that remained 99% above the bear-market bottom. Bitcoin recovered its previous high on February 3, 2013.

The 2019 cycle followed a similar sequence. Bitcoin fell from $19,250 in December 2017 to $3,195 in December 2018, reclaimed the average in May 2019, and then recorded five further breaks below it. Those declines included the March 2020 crash, when Bitcoin traded 38% below the average; even so, its $5,359 low held 68% above the previous bear-market bottom. Bitcoin regained its earlier high on December 6, 2020.

The Current Cycle Measured Against History

In the present cycle, Bitcoin reached $123,524 on October 5, 2025, before losing the average in November 2025. It subsequently bottomed at $59,517 on June 28, 2026, a decline of 51.8%. Bitcoin reclaimed the average on September 20, 12 weeks after its low. The November 8 weekly close, however, printed at $74,968, below the $75,488 average — leaving Bitcoin 7.7% below its reclaim price while still 26% above its June low.

Thorn Flags the Limits of Historical Comparisons

Thorn cautioned that five reclaims constitute the entire historical sample, and that analysts can identify a market bottom only in retrospect. The recovery cushion offers no reliable prediction: Bitcoin broke below the average again in 2012 despite reclaiming it with an 18% cushion, while the 2015 case held after an 8% cushion.

His bullish assessment from two weeks earlier, which covered technicals, fundamentals, positioning, and sentiment, remains contingent on one condition: Bitcoin must reclaim the average within one month for the technical argument to stay valid. That framing gives readers a concrete checkpoint, since each upcoming weekly close will either extend the time spent below the average or move Bitcoin back above the level Thorn set as the test of his thesis.