Red September might finally be dead. Bitcoin is up 7.33% in September, a performance that would make it the best month of its kind in the Coinglass price tracker's history going back to 2013, narrowly ahead of the 7.29% return posted in September 2024. With one trading day left before the Sept. 30 close—and Bitcoin sitting at roughly $83,600—the record hangs in an almost perfect tie.

A fourth straight green September would also be the longest streak on record, following six consecutive red ones from 2017 to 2022.

A historically hostile month

The potential turnaround contrasts with September's long history as crypto's cruelest month. Bitcoin closed September in the red in eight of the 13 years from 2013 through 2025, including six in a row from 2017 to 2022. Even after this year's gain, the month's average return stands at negative 2.34%, the worst of any month, per data from CoinGlass.

The tide has been turning, however. Bitcoin finished September up 3.91% in 2023, 7.29% in 2024, and 5.16% in 2025. This year's advance would make it four in a row, the longest green streak for the month in the data.

The "Red September" curse, if it can still be called that at this point, is not unique to crypto. The S&P 500 has also averaged a loss in September since 1945, with factors ranging from vacations to tax-loss harvesting tactics explaining the behavior.

2026's September wasn't pretty

Bitcoin opened the month around $78,500 after spiking 25% in August. Then mid-September arrived.

On Sept. 15, the Senate's Clarity Act failed a cloture vote, 49 to 50, and spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $450.4 million, their worst day since June. Cloture is the Senate's procedural vote to end debate and clear a bill for final passage, so the one-vote shortfall left the measure stalled. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold Bitcoin directly on investors' behalf, are tracked daily as a gauge of institutional demand for the asset.

A day later, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since 2023. Risk assets like crypto and stocks are sensitive to interest rate movements, as the cost of "cheap money" for riskier bets fluctuates, and Bitcoin dipped to around $75,000 following the rate hike.

With momentum stalled, Bitcoin registered a small correction, and it appeared September would be red once again.

Then it flipped. ETFs pulled in about $2.98 billion over seven straight sessions, including nearly $1 billion on Sept. 21, their best day since October 2025. Shorts got squeezed, with more than $800 million liquidated in 24 hours, and Bitcoin ran to $87,354, its highest level since late January. Liquidations forcibly close leveraged positions when the market moves against them, and in a short squeeze traders betting on a decline must buy back to exit, adding mechanical upward pressure to the rally.

What the chart says

Bitcoin has since given back about 4% of that move. On Monday, it slipped to $83,000 as Brent crude climbed back above $100 after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

On the daily chart, the pullback has been shallow. Fibonacci retracement levels, which mark how much of a previous move a pullback has given back, put the natural supports and resistances in the zone between $74,978 and $87,354.

Trend indicators still lean bullish. The Average Directional Index, which measures trend strength on a scale of 0 to 100 without indicating direction, reads 42.3, well above the 25 threshold traders use to confirm a strong trend. The Relative Strength Index, a momentum gauge from 0 to 100 where readings above 70 flag overbought conditions, sits at 61.2. The 50-day moving average is also above the 200-day, a classic bullish pattern known as a golden cross.

Lose $82,626, and the next support is the $81,166 to $79,705 zone, which corresponds to the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels.

The rest of the year

A green September doesn't fix 2026 entirely for investors. Bitcoin is still about 4.4% below the roughly $87,497 it traded at when the year began.

Last year's green September was followed by a red October, down 3.69%, and a 23% fourth-quarter drop. This year, the Fed's next meetings are scheduled for Oct. 27-28 and Dec. 8-9. Given how sharply Bitcoin responded to this month's rate decision, those meetings the next fixed dates on the calendar where risk assets face a scheduled rate update.

To keep the September record, Bitcoin needs to close the month above roughly $83,600. Monthly return statistics like these are tallied from closing prices, so the final Sept. 30 print decides the ranking. October's average return in the same dataset is 19.92%, though historical averages offer no guarantee of a repeat this year.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.