Bitcoin Slides Below $65,000 as Iran Conflict Pushes Oil Above $100 and Bond Yields Surge

Bitcoin ($BTC) dropped below $65,000 on Thursday as US equities declined amid a renewed escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran.

Key Points:

• Multiple days of US-Iran escalation are weighing on both cryptocurrency and stock market performance.
• Bitcoin reached three-day lows under $65,000, with traders divided on the near-term outlook.
• A 21-day moving average trend line is emerging as a critical nearby support level.

Bitcoin Under Pressure as Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Markets

Data from TradingView showed $BTC/USD falling to three-day lows of $64,799 on Bitstamp.

Risk assets came under pressure during the session after US President Donald Trump warned that he would hold Iran responsible for recent Houthi strikes targeting Saudi Arabian commercial vessels. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated he was "very disappointed" in the Houthis, referencing attacks on US ships dating back to 2025.

Bitcoin has increasingly traded in step with traditional risk assets during periods of macro stress, and Thursday's session followed that pattern as the crypto market mirrored losses across major equity indices.

By the close of trading in New York, the S&P 500 had declined 1.2% and the Nasdaq had lost 2.2%. Meanwhile, oil prices rallied to their highest levels since early June, with Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel — a level that has historically fed into consumer inflation prints with a lag, keeping pressure on central banks to maintain restrictive policy.

"Inflation expectations and interest rates are rising sharply again," trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a post on X.

Kobeissi also noted that US 10-year bond yields had reached 18-month highs, signaling renewed strain in the broader economy. Rising long-end yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, a dynamic that has periodically weighed on Bitcoin during previous monetary tightening cycles.

Fed Rate Hike Odds Climb

Ahead of the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision, data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicated a growing probability of a 0.25% rate hike — a scenario traditionally considered unfavorable for crypto markets. The odds approached 40% on Thursday, up from approximately 12% just one week earlier. The rapid shift in market-implied probabilities underscores how quickly geopolitical developments can alter the rate-path outlook that has anchored crypto sentiment for much of the year.

Traders Split on Bitcoin's Short-Term Direction

Bitcoin traders are increasingly divided over where short-term $BTC price action is headed.

Commentator Exitpump argued that Bitcoin's relief rally will likely conclude by late July, reinforcing a view that has been gaining traction among market observers.

"July rally is coming to end, price is at resistance, close your longs, go short once price breaks below 65K," Exitpump told X followers late on Wednesday.

Other traders remained more optimistic. Trader Jelle argued that the price was "still making progress."

"Clear this local area and that void towards $70k opens up — could be a quick move to form the new range. Patience remains my game," Jelle reported.

Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified the 21-week simple moving average (SMA) at $64,073 as a pivotal level. The 21-week SMA has served as a recurring inflection point across Bitcoin's post-2020 cycles, with breaks below it often preceding deeper corrections while successful holds have preceded resumed uptrends.

"Theoretically, the target area for Bitcoin is reached. However, as long as this stays above the 21-Day MA, I'm sure there will be a higher valuation for Bitcoin in the near-term," van de Poppe wrote in an X post, adding:

"It's facing the final hurdle for a big breakout, which is the $68,000 resistance zone. It's been tested once, and this is the second test that we'll be facing."

Van de Poppe set a $73,000 price target should bulls successfully break through the resistance zone.