By some measures, Bitcoin (BTC) has exited its bear market, as a composite BTC price indicator has flipped bullish for the first time since October 2025.

Key points:

• Bitcoin has exited its 2026 bear market, according to Ki Young Ju, as a profitability metric printed a positive reading of 0.042.
• The breakout from negative to positive territory repeats a bull-market recovery signal also seen in early 2023.
• Concerns remain over insufficient market liquidity to support a macro BTC price trend change.

Bitcoin profit metric offers first bull signal in ten months

The latest data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant has led its CEO, Ki Young Ju, to call time on Bitcoin's 2026 bear market.

In an X post on Wednesday, Ki flagged the first positive reading on CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator since early October.

"The Bitcoin bear cycle is over," he wrote in accompanying commentary.

The indicator is derived from the P&L Index — initially devised by CryptoQuant's head of research — and measures the P&L Index's distance from its 365-day moving average. The P&L Index itself is composed of several onchain profitability metrics: the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR). Together they provide an overall picture of Bitcoin investors' realized and unrealized profits and losses. Values above zero for the Bull/Bear indicator point to bullish phases in the BTC price cycle as profitability improves.

Onchain profitability metrics of this kind are widely followed in the crypto analysis community because they aggregate the cost basis of coins across the entire market: when the average holder moves back into profit, it historically tends to coincide with improving macro price conditions, while deeply negative readings align with capitulation phases.

The current cycle low came on Feb. 5 as BTC/USD fell to $60,000, with a reading of -1.244 corresponding to "extreme bear" conditions. As of Aug. 26, the most recent date for which full data is available, Bull/Bear displayed a positive reading of 0.042, placing it in its "bull" bracket.

The combination of P&L metrics and their 365-day moving averages has proven accurate at confirming macro BTC price trend changes. Ki notes that Bull/Bear likewise called the end of the previous bear market as upside returned in early 2023, when Bitcoin bottomed near $16,000 in late 2022 and staged a multi-month recovery that carried into the following cycle.

Misgivings over BTC price strength continue to mount

Bitcoin has seen the slow return of bull signals from various indicators in recent weeks, including the relative strength index (RSI), a recovery for which was also present at the end of 2022.

Related: Supply absorption 'key question' as Bitcoin fails to reclaim $80K: Analysis

Consensus among market participants over Bitcoin's recent upside marking the end of its macro downtrend is by no means unanimous. Previously, Cointelegraph reported on concerns that a lack of demand could see BTC/USD revert to downside, with multiple liquidity hurdles lined up immediately above spot price.

In ongoing market commentary, trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that the August monthly close would be "pivotal" for the fate of the recovery, referring to a potential breakout from a downward-sloping resistance trend line in place since October last year. That monthly close, together with whether Bull/Bear holds above zero on subsequent readings, offers observers a concrete checkpoint for judging whether the indicator's signal is being confirmed by price behavior.

Source: Cointelegraph