Bitcoin remains in a bear market but may be approaching its final phase, according to a chart analyst who is tracking the cryptocurrency against its historical four-year cycle. The analyst said a possible bottom could form as early as October, while emphasizing that cycle tools and seasonal patterns are not precise forecasts.

Bitcoin’s Previous Four-Year Pattern

According to the analyst, Bitcoin has historically followed a pattern of roughly one year in a bear market followed by about three years in a bull market, based on prior market cycles. The current decline began after Bitcoin’s high in October 2025, placing the asset approximately in line with what the analyst described as the final quarter of the downturn.

Bitcoin has already moved through the full $66,230 to $76,640 resistance zone identified for the third quarter. The analyst had previously marked that range as the likely ceiling for this stage of the cycle. If Bitcoin is rejected from that resistance area, the analyst said the next downside levels to monitor would be near $56,500 and then $44,000, with $39,000 cited as an additional target if selling pressure accelerates.

These levels are being framed as technical reference points rather than guarantees. In chart analysis, support and resistance zones are commonly used to assess where buying or selling pressure has previously appeared, and weekly closes are often watched because they can filter out some short-term intraday volatility.

Short-Term Bitcoin Levels in Focus

On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin was rejected near $66,300 in mid-July before falling below a rising trend line. That trend line is now positioned near $65,300 and may act as resistance going forward, according to the analyst.

Near-term support is located between $59,369 and $62,533. The analyst described that zone as the main area to watch heading into the weekly close. A separate resistance range between $64,922 and $66,227 is also being monitored as a potential ceiling for any short-term rebound. That band is based on Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent high.

For traders and market observers, the significance of the $59,369 to $62,533 area is that it sits between the recent rejection level and the deeper downside targets cited by the analyst. A hold or loss of that range would therefore shape how closely the lower levels near $56,500, $44,000, and $39,000 remain in focus under this framework.

Seasonal Data Points to a Potentially Volatile August

Seasonality data reviewed by the analyst shows that August and September have historically been weak months for Bitcoin during previous bear market years, including 2014, 2018, and 2022. July, by contrast, has typically been the strongest month in bear market years.

In 2022, Bitcoin continued rising into mid-August before reversing. The analyst said a similar pattern could occur again, although he cautioned that it is not a scenario he would trade aggressively.

Seasonal comparisons can provide context for how Bitcoin has behaved in prior periods, but they do not account for all current market conditions. The analyst’s use of those comparisons is therefore presented as one input alongside price levels and cycle timing, not as a standalone forecast.

Separate Cycle Model Indicates October Window

The analyst also cited a separate cycle-tracking tool that identifies a dominant 260-day rhythm in Bitcoin’s price action. That model previously flagged a cycle top forming in late May, which was followed by the current selloff.

Using the same rhythm, the tool now points to a possible major low around October this year, with a margin of two to four weeks in either direction. The analyst said both the seasonal and cycle-based models should be understood as descriptions of general tendencies rather than exact predictions. He also stressed that no method can guarantee when or where Bitcoin’s bear market will end.