Bitcoin is trading about 50% below the all-time high it reached in October, while the current downturn has now lasted more than 40 weeks. According to one analyst, four separate long-term indicators are aligning in a way that has historically been associated with the later stages of a bear market rather than its beginning.

The signals are not presented as timing tools on their own. They rely on Bitcoin’s limited cycle history and compare current market conditions with prior periods when long-duration valuation, relative-performance, and on-chain cost-basis measures reached extremes.

Long-Term Power Law Model Remains Near Its Lower Boundary

Bitcoin is currently trading close to the lower band of its long-term power law, a pricing model that the analyst said has maintained roughly 96% accuracy across the asset’s history.

The price has not made a decisive break below that lower boundary. However, it remains near the extreme low end of the model’s range, placing it close to an area that has previously coincided with major cycle lows.

Bitcoin Has Been Flat Against the Nasdaq Since 2017

The analyst also noted that Bitcoin has effectively gone nowhere against the Nasdaq for nine years, despite experiencing significantly higher volatility and risk during that period.

The comparison is based on a slow-moving weekly indicator that measures the Nasdaq’s value relative to Bitcoin using a 14-week relative strength reading. The threshold cited by the analyst has been reached only four times since 2010: in 2015, 2019, 2022, and now.

The current reading, near 72, is the highest on record. It has also persisted for more than 24 weeks, longer than any previous occurrence.

When the same signal appeared in 2022, Bitcoin declined by another 30% over the following four months. Even so, in every prior completed instance, Bitcoin later significantly outperformed the Nasdaq over the following one to three years.

The analyst added that the size of Bitcoin’s outperformance has declined with each cycle. Each three-year return has been roughly one-quarter to one-third of the gain recorded in the previous cycle.

Bitcoin Shows Its Most Oversold Reading Against Gold

A similar signal has appeared in Bitcoin’s comparison with gold. In February 2026, gold reached its most overbought level against Bitcoin in the pair’s recorded history. By that measure, Bitcoin has never been more oversold against gold.

The comparison carries important limitations. Bitcoin is roughly 20 years old, while gold has traded for centuries. In addition, Bitcoin’s early outperformance against gold took place while gold itself was in a prolonged bear market, making some degree of reversion expected over time.

Still, the analyst said prior readings near these levels have historically appeared close to major Bitcoin lows. In those instances, Bitcoin outperformed both gold and the dollar over the following one to three years.

Realized Price Holds Near $53,000

Bitcoin’s realized price, which represents the network-wide cost basis, is currently near $53,000. Realized price estimates the average price at which the existing Bitcoin supply last moved on-chain.

The metric is closely watched because periods below realized price have historically indicated that a large share of the supply is held at an unrealized loss. However, it may understate the true average cost basis because it includes lost coins and Satoshi-era holdings that have never moved.

In earlier market cycles, Bitcoin has both touched and briefly traded below its realized price during the final stages of bear markets. In those cases, the market continued lower for a period before eventually recovering.

Historically, returns over the following 150 weeks were positive in nearly every instance when Bitcoin was bought below its realized price. However, those returns have also diminished from cycle to cycle.

Historical Cycle Timing Points to Later Bear-Market Phase

Past Bitcoin bear markets have lasted roughly 60 weeks. The current downturn is about 40 weeks old, placing it around three-quarters of the way through its historical time-based duration.

If that pattern were to hold, a low could form around November. However, the analyst cautioned that there are only three completed cycles available for comparison, a small sample that limits confidence in any timing estimate.

Separate modeling by Blockworks researcher Luke Leisure points to continued volatility and possible additional downside through the end of 2026. Based on historical patterns, the model suggests a clearer and more constructive path could emerge in the 2027 to 2028 window. The modeling should not be treated as a price target.

The analyst also cited recent comments from a macro strategist who warned of another 9 to 12 months of pressure from tightening liquidity. Bitcoin has tended to price in such shifts earlier than other assets, which could shorten that timeline for Bitcoin specifically relative to broader markets.