Bitcoin [BTC] has historically struggled in August. Since 2022, the cryptocurrency has recorded an average August drawdown of 19.38%. If that pattern were repeated, BTC could decline to around $51.9k or potentially lower.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted the historical August performance in a post on X. Seasonal performance can provide useful context for traders, but it does not establish that a similar move will occur, especially when on-chain positioning and macro conditions are also changing.

Coinbase analysts have also said that Bitcoin appears to be moving from a bear market phase into an accumulation phase. While valuations remain compressed, they described the broader macro backdrop as “hawkish,” citing the U.S.-Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and selling by prominent digital asset treasuries.

Realized losses reached a record level during the Bitcoin bear market phase

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote that Bitcoin’s realized loss metric, measured by its 30-day moving average, showed a record loss in February 2026. The metric tracks coins moved on-chain at a lower price than their previous acquisition price, making it one way to gauge the scale of loss-taking during stressed market periods.

The realized loss peak reached $1.37 billion, the highest level in the metric’s available history. That figure was 19% above the June 2022 cycle peak of $1.15 billion.

The metric has since declined by 56.5% to a current reading of $597 million. At Bitcoin’s cycle-low price of $58.5k in late June, the profit-to-loss ratio stood at 0.26. In 2022, that ratio had fallen further, reaching 0.13.

As a result, realized losses have reached a record high in absolute amplitude, but the profit-to-loss comparison indicates that relative market stress has been lower in the current cycle than it was in 2022.

Adler concluded that it is still too early to use the record realized losses as confirmation that the worst phase of capitulation has already passed. He said that would only become clear in hindsight, once a bull run begins and the bear market and accumulation phase end without a sharper sell-off.

Bitcoin long-term holder accumulation hits a six-year high

CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci cited the long-term holder, or LTH, net position change metric, noting that it had reached its highest level in six years. The metric is closely watched because long-term holders are generally associated with lower turnover, so changes in their net position can show whether older supply is being accumulated or distributed.

On 24 May 2026, the metric climbed to 1.29 million BTC over 30 days, exceeding the previous record from August 2017.

Kesmeci said accumulation at that scale among long-term holders reflected firm conviction. However, he clarified that the data point alone was not enough to conclude that a bull market had returned.

He nevertheless described the development as a strong positive signal in a market that remains pressured by sellers.

Bitcoin has posted losses in August in each of the previous four years, and a similar decline would place prices near $52k. At the same time, realized losses have reached record highs, while long-term holder accumulation has surpassed the August 2017 record. Together, the data leaves investors watching whether selling pressure continues to ease and whether long-term holder accumulation persists through the seasonally weak period.