Bitcoin (BTC) enters the first full week of August trading near $63,000 as market participants assess the fallout from the ongoing Coldcard hardware wallet hack.

Key developments:

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent utilizes a Federal Reserve repo facility for coordinated currency intervention as the Japanese yen temporarily rebounds from four-decade lows against the dollar.
• Oil prices plunge after President Donald Trump signals a potential deal with Iran.
• Bitcoin closed July with a 7.4% gain, though analysts caution that August could bring renewed downside.

Bessent Signals Willingness for Further Yen Intervention

Concerns about US Treasury market stability drove Washington's decision to intervene in support of the Japanese yen last week. The move came after USD/JPY approached 164, according to TradingView data.

USD/JPY one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

"It was the first coordinated US–Japan foreign-exchange intervention since 2011 and the first joint operation specifically supporting the yen since 1998," crypto trading firm QCP Capital noted in analysis published Monday.

"The distinction matters. The New York Fed acted as the Treasury's fiscal agent rather than as an independent monetary-policy decision by the Federal Reserve. The operation therefore highlights how institutions outside the FOMC can also influence currencies, liquidity and broader financial conditions."

Industry sources speaking to mainstream media emphasized that policymakers sought to prevent Japan from selling large quantities of US Treasuries. The deployment of the Fed's Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repo facility — which enables select foreign central banks to obtain dollar liquidity without offloading Treasuries — reinforces that interpretation.

"There is a self-preservation element here. Volatile markets driven by potentially fiscally-aggressive policies from Japan could extend to the U.S. Treasury markets, destabilizing the dollar," Louise Loo, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, told CNBC.

The yen's volatility carries direct relevance for crypto markets. Yen-funded carry trades — where investors borrow in low-interest yen to purchase higher-yielding assets — have become a significant cross-market force, and episodes of rapid yen appreciation can trigger forced unwinding across risk assets including Bitcoin.

In a post on X, Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that FIMA could be deployed again.

"Friday's coordinated foreign exchange actions countered disorderly yen movements. Treasury remains attentive and in close communication with our counterparts at MOF and BOJ. We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention. The FIMA Repo Facility is an important backstop. We would encourage it to be upsized in the coming months," he wrote.

Oil Tumbles as Trump Hints at Iran Deal

Thursday's US nonfarm payrolls report stands as the primary focus for crypto and risk-asset traders this week. The figures will offer fresh insight into labor market strength following a series of mixed inflation readings. Labor market data has taken on heightened importance for rate expectations after Fed officials repeatedly cited employment conditions alongside inflation as dual criteria for policy decisions.

June's payrolls report came in well below expectations, with only 57,000 jobs added versus the 114,000 forecast. The prior two months were revised down by a combined 74,000 positions. Bitcoin rallied on the release, as softer labor data increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease its policy stance.

Some analysts anticipate a rebound in July payrolls, though macro research firm Continuum Economics simultaneously projects higher unemployment.

"We expect July's non-farm payroll to rise by 120k overall and by 110k in the private sector, a significant improvement from June's respective gains of 57k and 49k but largely explained by a recovery in leisure and hospitality. We expect unemployment to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, reversing a June decline, and an in line with trend 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings," the firm forecast.

US civilian unemployment rate. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Beyond economic data, markets are also watching for signals of a durable ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

In a Truth Social post on Sunday, President Trump announced a delay to additional strikes on Iranian territory, citing a potential agreement.

"This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran's nuclear threat. Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL," he wrote.

Oil prices dropped sharply at the start of the week, with both WTI and Brent crude declining more than 8% on Monday. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption transiting through it daily, making any stabilization of shipping access a material development for energy costs and, by extension, inflation expectations that feed into Fed policy calculus.

Equities Face Seasonal Headwinds Into US Midterms

US equities confront seasonal resistance through October as the US Midterm elections approach, according to analysis from trading resource Mosaic Asset Company.

The S&P 500 closed July down 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index posted its worst July performance since 2006, falling 3.2%.

In the latest edition of its newsletter, The Market Mosaic flagged seasonal patterns as a significant obstacle for equities starting this month.

"Based on multiple lookback periods, seasonality becomes a much stronger headwind over the next couple months," it wrote, with data suggesting improvement may not arrive until the beginning of Q4.

S&P 500 average monthly returns. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

US equities failed to stage a meaningful recovery into the monthly close, even as Asian markets rebounded from a sharp sell-off centered on semiconductor stocks. Missed earnings and debt-related concerns drove a $620 billion wipeout over just two days. The decline comes as combined 2026 capital expenditure guidance from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta now tracks toward $730 billion.

For Bitcoin, the current trajectory mirrors a familiar pattern, according to analyst Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of quantitative analysis platform Into the Cryptoverse.

"Bitcoin is still generally tracking the average of prior midterm years (only slightly elevated off of that average)," he reported on X, tracking year-to-date returns.

Bitcoin RoI comparison. Source: Benjamin Cowen on X.com

Exchange Flows Stabilize After Coldcard Shock

Bitcoin users continue responding to a low-entropy bug in Coldcard hardware wallets, with funds being siphoned for a fourth straight day. The exploit, linked to a security vulnerability dating back to 2021, had drained nearly $90 million worth of BTC as of Sunday. Coldcard, manufactured by Toronto-based Coinkite, is one of the most widely used hardware wallets among Bitcoin self-custody advocates, which has amplified the urgency of the response within the community.

Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Research, urged Coldcard users to relocate funds "ASAP" and use high transaction fees to minimize the time spent interacting with compromised wallets.

Exchange flow data, however, does not indicate a mass migration of BTC from users seeking alternatives to hardware storage or rotating into ETFs. CryptoQuant data shows net inflows of 34,932 BTC on Friday and 8,768 BTC on Sunday — notable but consistent with levels observed throughout the month.

Bitcoin exchange inflows. Source: CryptoQuant

Depositing transactions showed a more visible reaction, spiking to match some of the highest daily totals since March before declining over the weekend. Exchanges logged 31,217 inbound BTC transactions on Friday, dropping to 19,537 by Sunday.

Bitcoin exchange deposit transactions. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno noted that the influx was primarily driven by transactions between 1 and 10 BTC. At roughly 7,300 such transactions, Friday marked the highest daily count since early February.

Bitcoin exchange inflows by transaction size. Source: Julio Moreno on X.com

In further analysis released Monday, CryptoQuant observed that on a rolling 30-day basis, Bitcoin's long-term holders (LTHs) remain in a broad accumulation phase.

"Data shows that the BTC LTH Accumulation & Distribution (30D) indicator is currently recording LTH Supply Inflow of around 220.4K BTC. This suggests that the amount of Bitcoin flowing into the Long-Term Holder cohort continues to outweigh the amount being distributed back to the market," the firm wrote.

Bitcoin 30-day LTH accumulation and distribution. Source: CryptoQuant

Traders Brace for a "Red" August

Key technical levels continue to cap Bitcoin's advance into August, with analysts pointing to historical bear-market parallels.

BTC/USD finished July up 7.4%, slightly below its 2025 performance, according to CoinGlass data.

BTC/USD monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass

Despite the July gain, market participants expect renewed downward pressure this month, consistent with the 2026 bear market's alignment with historical patterns. The 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,827 serves as a critical psychological level.

"It has been confirmed. The 50-Month EMA continues to act as resistance," trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote on X on Sunday.

"Continued rejection from the 50 EMA would set price up for downside continuation over time."

BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

On shorter time frames, CoinGlass data tracking high-leverage BTC positions in the derivatives market identified $64,200 as a zone of potential forced liquidations if price reverses upward.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Quant analyst David Eng characterized the price as "sitting on its long-term statistical floor" near $63,000, citing data from the power law model, which describes price as growing as a function of time.

Bitcoin Power Law data. Source: David Eng on X.com

Bitcoin enters August with long-term holders quietly accumulating while short-term technicals flash caution. Whether the month defies its historical pattern of weakness will likely hinge on the next round of macroeconomic data releases.