Bitcoin (BTC/USD), the largest cryptocurrency by market value, has fallen 11.3% since October 20, and crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen suggested on Wednesday that the upcoming Anthropic IPO may be one reason for the decline. His chart shows Bitcoin tracking nearly the same path it followed before SpaceX went public in June.

Perhaps the reason Bitcoin is falling (if you need one) is due to the upcoming Anthropic IPO. You can see Bitcoin's performance going into the SpaceX IPO (blue line). Investors will often try to free up capital for major IPOs. pic.twitter.com/fx6VvST58p — Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) November 11, 2026

Post: https://x.com/benjamincowen/status/2120525821073129656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Investors often sell other assets to free up cash ahead of a large IPO, Cowen argued. Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company behind the Claude chatbot, is expected to raise up to $64.4 billion when its shares begin trading, likely on November 19, according to its roadshow announcement. That would make it the second-largest IPO in history, behind only SpaceX's $75 billion listing. If the expected date holds, the two largest IPOs on record will both have taken place in 2026, five months apart.

Bitcoin trades at $73,612 on Binance, down 1% in the past 24 hours, after this week's hot inflation report pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike close to certain. The decline has now stretched over roughly three weeks.

So is the Anthropic IPO pulling money out of Bitcoin, or is the Fed the bigger weight? Both explanations were examined using exchange data, the historical IPO record, and prediction-market odds.

Bitcoin's Slide Matches the SpaceX Run-Up — Until June 1

To put Cowen's observation to the test, the comparison was rebuilt from Binance's daily closing prices. Day zero is the first day of trading: June 12 for SpaceX and, if the expected date holds, November 19 for Anthropic.

The two paths are close for the first three weeks. Twelve days before SpaceX listed, Bitcoin was down 7.1% from the start of the window. Twelve days before Anthropic's expected debut, on November 7, it was down 8.6% — slightly deeper than the SpaceX comparison at the same stage.

Then the SpaceX path dropped hard. BTC/USD fell another 12% in four days in early June and was down 19.5% at the point where it is down 11.3% today. It ended the 30 days before the SpaceX IPO 19.8% lower.

That drop had other causes as well. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 13 straight days of net outflows — days on which withdrawals exceeded new deposits — from May 15 to June 3, the longest streak since they launched. Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in four years, and rising oil prices pushed inflation fears higher. About $1.86 billion in crypto bets were forcibly closed in a single day during that stretch.

BTC/USD Fell Before Only 5 of 9 Big IPOs

One match is not a pattern. To see whether IPO-related selling is a recurring phenomenon, Bitcoin's trading in the 30 days before and after nine big IPOs since 2019 — from Uber to SpaceX — was reviewed.

BTC/USD fell before five of them and rose before four. The median move in the 30 days before the listing was a 3.6% drop. In the 30 days after, Bitcoin rose seven times out of nine, with a median gain of 5%.

Size may matter. The two largest IPOs, SpaceX and Saudi Aramco's $25.6 billion listing in 2019, both came after Bitcoin had fallen more than 17% in a month. Rivian, the third largest at $11.9 billion, came after a 16.5% rise. Two cases are too few to call it a rule, but Anthropic would be the second-biggest test of the pattern yet.

Rate-Hike Odds Barely Moved During the Slide

The Fed theory has a timing problem. Traders were already betting on a December rate hike before Bitcoin started falling.

On Polymarket, the combined odds of a December hike stood at 80.2% on October 20. They dipped to 65.1% on November 6 and were back at 80.0% on Tuesday morning, before the inflation report. Over that stretch, BTC/USD fell about 9%.

The odds moved only on Tuesday. October's consumer prices rose faster than expected, and the chance of a hike jumped to 97.4%, including 11.9% odds for a half-point move. Bitcoin dropped to $72,727 that day, its lowest price since August 20. The rate news explains Tuesday's sharp drop, but it does not account for the whole month of selling.

Tech stocks fit the slide more closely. Since October 20, the Nasdaq has fallen 4% and Nvidia 20.8%. Bitcoin has traded closely with tech stocks this year, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 29, in "fear" territory.

The answer is probably "a bit of each." An IPO of this size needs buyers, and some growth investors may be selling Bitcoin to make room. But the IPO record is mixed, the Fed odds did not change until Tuesday, and the sell-off in tech stocks lines up with Bitcoin's decline.

BTC/USD Price Analysis: Can Bitcoin Hold $72,727?

BTC/USD trades at $73,612, down 1% in 24 hours and about 6% over the past week. On the daily chart, where each candle covers one day, the price sits below both of its exponential moving averages (EMAs), averages that give recent prices more weight. The 50-day EMA stands at $78,890 and the 200-day EMA at $76,447.

Resistance: $75,599, Monday's high, then $76,447, the 200-day EMA. Above that, $78,890, the 50-day EMA.

Support: $73,510, the November 8 low, then $72,727, Tuesday's low. Below that, $68,902, the August 20 low.

BTCUSDT 1D chart. Source: TradingView.

If the SpaceX pattern holds, the selling should ease once ANT — Anthropic's expected ticker — starts trading: Bitcoin was flat in the 30 days after SpaceX listed. Until then, $72,727 is the key level to watch, with the Fed's December decision the other major event on the calendar.