Bitcoin has surged in recent days, with the leading cryptocurrency surpassing $87,000 for the first time in almost eight months. As bullish expectations around $BTC build, PlanB — the analyst best known for his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, a scarcity-based valuation framework that ties Bitcoin's worth to its issuance schedule — has released his latest assessment of where Bitcoin stands relative to his key indicators.

The $53,000 Scenario Is Weakening

In a post shared from his X account, PlanB argued that with Bitcoin trading around $87,000, a decline below $53,000 in the current cycle is highly unlikely.

According to his assessment, Bitcoin's current price sits above significant realized price levels. He listed the figures as follows: $BTC trading at approximately $87,000, the realized price — cited as the total market value — at around $53,000, the 155-day moving average at roughly $72,000, and the two-year moving average at about $86,000.

Realized price is a widely tracked on-chain measure that values each bitcoin at the price of its last on-chain movement, giving analysts a rough read on the aggregate cost basis of holders, while long-period moving averages such as the 155-day and two-year lines are used to smooth out short-term volatility and frame the broader trend.

Bitcoin is therefore trading above all three key indicators. In PlanB's view, this positioning is noteworthy in terms of downside risk.

The analyst stated that with $BTC holding above all three levels, the possibility of Bitcoin falling below $53,000 in this cycle has almost completely disappeared. He added that the scenario of Bitcoin retesting its total realized price, as happened in past bear markets, has become much less likely.

Focus on the 2024-2028 Cycle

PlanB also turned to the structure of the current market cycle. In his assessment, price movements during 2025 and 2026 point to a bull-bear cycle featuring more limited pullbacks than previous Bitcoin cycles.

The 2024-2028 window he references corresponds to Bitcoin's current four-year halving cycle, the framework through which he has long mapped his S2F analysis and which is anchored to the periodic reductions in new Bitcoin supply.

On that basis, he said he expects Bitcoin to reach its all-time high again within the current 2024-2028 halving cycle.

For readers following his outlook, the levels he identifies — realized price at $53,000, the 155-day average at $72,000, and the two-year average at $86,000 — remain the reference points for gauging how much room Bitcoin's price carries above each of his cycle markers, and his call for shallower pullbacks rests on price holding above them.

This is not investment advice.