Bitcoin retreated after levels above $87,000 and continues to trade within the $82,000-$85,000 range, and it remains to be seen whether the uptrend will continue. Two analytics firms have now identified distinct obstacles for the cryptocurrency: Glassnode points to a critical resistance zone, while 10x Research founder Markus Thielen highlights the role of US Treasury bond yields. Read together, the two analyses frame the next phase of the market around reference points traders commonly track: on-chain cost-basis levels and the direction of Treasury yields.

Glassnode Identifies Critical Resistance Zone

According to Glassnode's analysis, shared via its X account, Bitcoin is facing resistance in the $84,000-$85,000 range, where long-term investors are most heavily concentrated. The on-chain analytics firm stated that for the uptrend to gain strength, it is important for Bitcoin to surpass the $84,000-$85000 region and hold above these levels. Cost-basis zones of this kind serve as reference levels in on-chain analysis because they mark where a large share of coins was last acquired, showing whether that segment of holders holds gains or losses at current prices.

Glassnode noted that if Bitcoin breaks above the $84,000-$85,000 resistance zone, the next key level to watch is the MVRV price, which sits at approximately $96,700. MVRV, short for Market Value to Realized Value, compares Bitcoin's market value with the value of coins at their last on-chain movement and is widely used to gauge the average profitability of holders. Conversely, the firm said that if BTC falls below $84,000, the $77,000 level will regain importance as a key support level. The framework effectively leaves the market watching two thresholds: a hold above the $84,000-$85,000 zone on the upside, and the $77,000 floor on the downside.

Thielen: The Reason Behind Rising Bond Yields Matters

In addition to Glassnode's analysis, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, examined US Treasury bond yields, which he believes triggered the decline in Bitcoin. The US 10-year Treasury yield acts as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy and is closely watched as a gauge of liquidity conditions for risk assets. Speaking to CoinDesk, Thielen stated that a rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield to 6% does not necessarily mean it will harm Bitcoin, drawing a distinction based on the reasons why bond yields are rising.

According to Thielen, if the rise in US 10-year Treasury yields to 6% stems from concerns about fiscal deficits and government debt, it may not necessarily be negative for BTC. The analyst suggested that this scenario could lead investors toward alternative assets and increase demand for Bitcoin.

However, Thielen noted that if the rise in bond yields is driven by the Fed's interest rate hikes, it could put pressure on Bitcoin. He recalled that Bitcoin lost approximately 64% of its value during the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022, and warned that similar downward pressure could reappear if the Fed continues with aggressive interest rate increases. For readers, that leaves a two-part checklist: Bitcoin's behavior around the $84,000-$85,000 zone with the $96,700 MVRV price and $77,000 support mapped out by Glassnode, and which driver — fiscal concerns or Fed policy — dominates should the 10-year yield move toward 6%.

*This is not investment advice.