Bitcoin's BTC ($83,023.80) rally has stalled, and a handful of analysts say a single price level will decide whether the market's next move is up or down. As the sector's largest asset, bitcoin tends to set the tone for the broader crypto market.

The world's largest cryptocurrency hit a high above $87,400 on Sept. 21. It has pulled back since, testing the $82,000 to $83,000 zone. That area matters: it is where bitcoin topped out in May before tumbling about $57,000 in June. The asset is still trading close to that level.

Most market watchers expect another leg higher soon, with some anticipating a rally to $100,000. But a number of analysts are keeping an eye on the bearish case, and it starts with a drop below $82,000.

In trading terms, $82,000 is support — a price floor where buying pressure is expected to overpower selling pressure. Old ceilings often turn into new floors, and, by the same logic, broken floors often become new ceilings, which is why traders treat these levels as decisive. Bitcoin struggled to break above $82,000 in May and again in early September. Once it finally cleared that bar, the level became the line buyers are expected to defend.

"The level to watch is $82k," said Jeff Anderson, head of U.S. at crypto trading firm STS Digital. He pointed to the double top at that level, a chart pattern shaped like the letter M that forms when prices hit the same peak twice and fail both times.

"A breakdown will probably yield a slip back into the high 70s," Anderson said.

He does not see a drop as the end of the rally, though. U.S. inflation and shaky confidence in U.S. government debt are the kind of forces that tend to help bitcoin over time, he noted. "Any move like this would be well supported."

Anderson blames the recent weakness on the bond market rather than on bitcoin itself. U.S. Treasury note prices are falling while yields are climbing, and when yields on safe government bonds rise, riskier assets like crypto can look less attractive. Treasury yields serve as the baseline return investors can earn with little risk, which is why sharp moves there tend to ripple across risk assets.

"Current softness this week is a direct result of yield markets unravelling and volatility exploding in fixed income space," Anderson said. "At the current pace it feels like treasuries will keep selling off until equities finally crack out!"

Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, sees the key area slightly more broadly, identifying the $81,500 to $83,000 zone as the decisive range. From here, traders will be watching whether that zone holds up under further tests — and whether the bond-market volatility Anderson flagged keeps building or shows signs of cooling.

This report was originally published by CoinDesk.