Bitcoin (BTC) pushed up to $81,265 in Thursday trading, according to COINOTAG's live spot reading taken shortly after 21:45 UTC, even as the United States Treasury market reasserted itself as the dominant force in global risk pricing. The move left traders weighing a direct question: can a fixed-supply asset — one whose supply is hard-capped at 21 million coins — hold its ground against a 5% risk-free yield?

10-Year Yield Revisits 5%

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed the New York session at 4.998%, up roughly six basis points on the day, after briefly trading above the 5% line intraday. Earlier in the week, the same benchmark touched 5.041% — its highest print since 2007. The whole curve shifted higher in step: the two-year yield rose to 4.748%, while the 30-year climbed to 5.327%, as traders repriced the Federal Reserve's policy path upward.

The repricing echoed the central bank's own messaging. The Fed lifted its target range by 0.25 percentage points this week to 3.75%-4.00%, and Chair Kevin Warsh used his post-meeting press conference to stress that inflation has stayed too high for too long. Projections released alongside the decision showed a majority of committee members expecting at least one further increase this year, and rate futures now assign roughly a 55% probability to another quarter-point move at the next meeting — the nearest scheduled checkpoint for this repricing.

Strategists at Edward Jones argued that the initial dip in long yields immediately after the hike reflected strengthened credibility on inflation, before caution about additional tightening returned on Thursday.

The dollar index touched 100.4 intraday — a seven-week high and a weekly gain near 1.3% — before easing back to 99.885 at the close. Despite the bond market's hawkish message, equity desks took the tone in stride.

For digital assets, the arithmetic is direct. A 5% risk-free yield on short-dated Treasuries competes squarely with the returns offered across decentralized finance (DeFi) and with the case for holding a non-yielding asset, and every basis point added to the terminal rate tightens that competition. That Bitcoin still advanced roughly 4% through the session — from near $78,000 in Asian hours to $81,265 — is the detail traders are now weighing.

BOJ Lifts Rates to 1.25%

The Bank of Japan delivered the week's second hawkish shock. Its policy board raised the short-term policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995, at a meeting held just three months after the June decision — a clear acceleration from the roughly six-month cadence the bank had maintained since March 2024. Two board members dissented, a striking contrast with the unanimously approved Federal Reserve move two days earlier, and markets read the split as a sign the tightening pace may remain measured.

The yen sold off on the decision anyway, sliding into the 157 area against the dollar. USD/JPY briefly touched 158.05, a two-week high, before paring gains to around 156.7 after Japan's finance ministry announced a currency rate-check — a step widely treated as the precursor to direct intervention, and one that keeps markets watching Tokyo's next move. Strategists at Standard Chartered noted that the BOJ failed to deliver the forceful signal markets had hoped for.

The dollar's strength rippled across Asia. USD/KRW rose to 1,385.62, with an intraday high near 1,389, leaving the won at its weakest level since August as the widening US-Korea rate gap amplified dollar-asset returns.

Risk Assets Push Back

Equities closed higher on both sides of the Pacific. The S&P 500 finished at 7,637.77, up 1.14%, and the Nikkei 225 ended at 65,018.95, up 1.38%, helped by crude oil's third straight decline, which left WTI below $100 as receding Saudi supply concerns eased one source of inflation pressure.

Gold climbed 0.85% to $4,377.29 an ounce, briefly clearing $4,390 for a one-week high, and now sits against the $4,400-$4,440 support-resistance zone technicians are watching.

In crypto, Ethereum (ETH) traded at $2,630, while Solana (SOL) added 5.63% to $105.79 — the largest 24-hour gain among tracked majors — and XRP rose 2.41% to $1.339. The moves suggest that demand for assets with fixed or programmatic circulating supply remains firm despite the hawkish turn.

Two central banks, one message: restrictive policy will outlast what markets priced a month ago. Yet COINOTAG's aggregate data shows risk appetite intact — the outlet's Fear & Greed Index reads 56 (Greed), above the neutral of the sentiment gauge, Bitcoin accounts for 67.7% of its tracked total market capitalization of $2.41 trillion, and capital has continued rotating into Bitcoin DeFi strategies, where holders deploy coins in pursuit of yield, rather than sitting in cash. Holding a fixed-supply asset against a 5% yield is now the decisive test.