Bitcoin (BTC) began the new week at its highest level in nearly eight months, with the market rising above $85,000 as bullish momentum accelerated.

Bitcoin reached $85,248 on Monday, its highest price since Jan. 29. The move also brought BTC closer to the estimated breakeven level of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors, near $86,000. At the same time, markets were monitoring oil prices below $94 per barrel and bond yields amid reports of possible diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran.

Bitcoin moves above $85,000 after weekly close

Bitcoin was testing a key breakout level as it reached $85,000 and established a new 33-week high. Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD advancing after recording a weekly close of $81,120 on Sunday, the highest weekly close since the week of May 4.

The rise triggered a sharp increase in crypto short liquidations. Data from CoinGlass put the total cross-crypto liquidations over the preceding 24 hours at more than $600 million.

The latest advance has renewed debate over whether Bitcoin can hold above the previous local high of $82,950, set in May. Last week, trader and analyst Rekt Capital described Bitcoin as facing a “moment of truth” as it consolidated below that level in a post on X.

Rekt Capital also warned that a bearish divergence was developing on the relative strength index (RSI) on daily time frames. The indicator was recording lower highs while Bitcoin’s price was making higher highs. According to the analyst, that pattern pointed to insufficient underlying momentum to support the price gains and increased the risk of a sudden reversal.

After Bitcoin returned to $84,000, the daily RSI was approaching the “overbought” threshold of 70. Bitcoin had also reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,769, a level previously identified as an important prerequisite for continued upside, according to Cointelegraph analysis.

Bitcoin ETF investors approach breakeven

Several investor groups had returned to aggregate profit, including corporate Bitcoin treasuries, whose holdings had a cost basis of approximately $80,500. Bitcoin’s price was also approaching the estimated cost basis of investors in US spot Bitcoin ETFs.

According to data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode, shared on X, the cost basis for those ETF investors stood at $85,638.

Bitcoin exchange-traded products ended the week strongly as investors increased their BTC exposure during the rally toward $81,000. US ETFs recorded $435 million in net inflows on Friday, their largest daily inflow since Sept. 3, according to data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors.

The inflows came despite the CLARITY Act failing to advance in the Senate the previous week. On Thursday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) moved forward with crypto-related policies, according to Cointelegraph. The developments coincided with $159 million in net crypto ETF inflows that day and appeared to support crypto stocks.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest Bitcoin ETF, did not account for most of Friday’s inflows. Instead, investors directed the largest share to Fidelity Investments’ Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), which received $310 million of the total.

Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant discussed the shift in ETF flow composition in a blog analysis.

“The key change is therefore not simply positive ETF activity, but a clear redistribution of flow leadership: IBIT went from dominating FBTC by nearly six times on September 3 to FBTC recording almost three times IBIT’s holdings netflow on September 18,” CryptoQuant stated.

Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $82,950, the behavior of ETF flows and the estimated $85,638 ETF cost basis provided near-term reference points for assessing whether the advance was continuing. Markets were also due to receive further policy commentary when Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin spoke on Tuesday.

Oil declines as Trump signals possible Iran dialogue

With the US macroeconomic calendar relatively quiet, attention shifted toward oil prices as inflation expectations for the remainder of 2026 moved higher.

WTI crude oil, which rose above $100 per barrel the previous week, traded below $94 on Monday amid expectations that new diplomatic efforts could help resolve the situation in the Middle East.

On Sunday, Majed Al-Ansari, a spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, said efforts to restart talks between the United States and Iran had continued “for the past couple of weeks.”

“A lot of ideas have been thrown back and forth,” he told Bloomberg.

“This is just one iteration of these documents going back and forth, and we’re trying to bridge the gap and find the right moment to move forward.”

In a telephone interview with Fox News on Sunday, US President Donald Trump reportedly described his options in the Iran conflict as “wiping Iran out, letting them rot economically, or making a deal.” Trump also said he would “probably be open” to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the United Nations General Assembly during the week.

Markets price in two more Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026

The shutdown of several oil-shipping routes has already affected fuel prices globally, as Cointelegraph reported. Although central banks are tightening monetary policy through interest-rate increases, the full impact of the supply shock has not yet been felt. Saudi Arabia warned the European Union last week that its refineries would not receive shipments in October, according to Reuters.

The latest data from the CME Group FedWatch Tool showed that markets expected the US Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate by another 0.25% at its October meeting. The probability of that outcome stood at 53% on Monday. CME data also indicated a nearly 40% chance of a third 0.25% rate hike before the end of 2026.

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak to the CFA Society Baltimore on Tuesday. The event could provide additional information about the Fed’s current policy stance. Barkin is expected to discuss “insights on the current economic landscape, the latest monetary policy developments, and his outlook for the U.S. economy,” according to the event listing.

Analysts see stocks retaining gains as yields ease

US Treasury yields continued to retreat from multidecade highs on Monday as borrowing costs declined alongside the drop in oil prices.

The US 30-year yield traded at 5.301%, down from a high of 5.425% recorded on Sept. 11. That earlier level was the highest since June 2004.

Bitcoin market participants have continued to monitor developments involving bond yields after reacting positively to the announcement of US bond-market interventions in August. In a report prepared for CME on Sept. 16, Jim Iuorio, CEO of JI Financial Strategies, said the interventions could provide a liquidity tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto markets.

“Perhaps markets viewed these actions as being dollar-negative, pushing money back into dollar hedges like gold and Bitcoin,” he said.

Mosaic Asset Company’s latest analysis also identified the possibility that stocks could maintain their strength despite tighter macroeconomic conditions. The firm wrote:

“While investors are wondering what the Fed’s rate hiking cycle means for the S\u0026P 500, evidence of strong economic growth should help keep the earnings outlook in tact. As long as the Fed is hiking at a measured pace that doesn’t call into question the growth outlook, the rally in equities can persist.”

Mosaic Asset Company published the analysis in its Mosaic Chart Alerts.