Bitcoin is testing a critical weekly support level near $75,500 and analyst Doctor Profit warns that a breakdown at this level would invalidate his bullish outlook for the asset. In a post on X, the analyst identified the 50-week moving average as the market's final major support, noting that a weekly breakdown below $75,500 could expose Bitcoin to further declines toward the 68,000–69,000 Fibonacci Golden Pocket, a retracement zone that technical traders commonly reference when mapping possible support.

Why the 50-Week Moving Average Matters

The 50-week moving average smooths roughly a year of weekly closes, making it one of the slower trend indicators technicians use to separate extended bull phases from bear phases. Doctor Profit said the 50-week moving average currently sits around $75,500 on his chart, and he previously highlighted the $76,000 region as Bitcoin approached this technical level. According to his analysis, Bitcoin reclaimed the moving average in 2023 before continuing its bull market, and subsequent retests between 2023 and 2025 marked local price bottoms on three occasions.

That pattern was broken when Bitcoin lost the weekly trendline in late 2025, which the analyst says confirmed the beginning of the bear market. Doctor Profit now considers another decisive breakdown a failure of his bullish setup. Because the level is tracked on weekly candles, the weekly close is the data point that would confirm or reject such a breakdown on his chart.

$69,000 Becomes the Next Support Target

If Bitcoin loses the moving average, Doctor Profit expects selling pressure to continue, with the 68,000–69,000 Fibonacci Golden Pocket serving as the next major support zone.

On-chain data also points to selling pressure. Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis, an on-chain gauge that approximates the average entry price of recent buyers, sits around $75,800 — within roughly $300 of the moving average Doctor Profit flagged. Glassnode data shows more than 30,000 BTC recently moved to exchanges at losses, andQuant reported continued selling pressure among buyers who entered positions around 85,000–87,000.

Doctor Profit considers the current decline a potential local bottom. Still, he acknowledged that losing the weekly moving average would invalidate his earlier $80,000 analysis.

Doctor Profit Keeps Bitcoin Longs Open

Despite recent losses on Bitcoin long positions opened around 80,000–81,000, Doctor Profit said he remains invested. His earlier Bitcoin purchases between $60,000 and $64,000 remain profitable.

He also reported gains from stock market shorts, including SanDisk, down roughly 60%; IBM, down 26%; and MSTR (MicroStrategy, the bitcoin-holding software company), down 51%. Netflix shorts are up approximately 43%, while his S&P 500 short sits 4% from its entry.

The analyst said he intends to maintain those AI-related stock shorts while keeping his Bitcoin positions open. He clarified that his strategy excludes crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange, and CRCL, the ticker for stablecoin issuer Circle.