Bitcoin’s position around a cluster of long-term weekly moving averages has become a key technical test for determining whether the cryptocurrency has formed a major market bottom or remains in a broader correction.

Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto said the latest bearish crossover should be treated as a possible sign of a bottoming regime, rather than as a precise marker of Bitcoin’s market low.

Bitcoin was trading near $77,479 on the chart, placing its recovery close to two major long-term indicators: the 66-week moving average and the slower 100-week moving average. A bearish crossover occurs when the 66-week average moves below the 100-week average. Still, both indicators are based on historical price data and cannot pinpoint the exact timing of a market bottom.

Because weekly moving averages are slow-moving trend tools, their value in this setup is less about predicting a single turning point than about showing whether price can sustain a recovery once volatility eases. That makes the current test relevant for market participants watching for confirmation rather than just a headline crossover.

Previous Bitcoin cycles show different bottoming patterns

EGRAG compared the current structure with three earlier Bitcoin cycles, each of which produced a different price pattern around similar moving-average crossovers.

Although all three historical formations reflected broader market weakness, the eventual market bottoms developed at different points in each cycle. The comparison suggests that the crossover itself does not necessarily mark the final low.

Cycle A formed a double-bottom pattern around the crossover period before Bitcoin eventually entered a sustained recovery. That setup pointed to a broader accumulation phase rather than a single exact entry point.

Cycle B followed a different path, with Bitcoin reaching its final bottom before the two moving averages crossed on the weekly chart. Traders waiting for confirmation from the crossover would have entered after the recovery had already gained substantial momentum.

Cycle C offered another example of continued downside after a bearish crossover. Bitcoin set a lower low after the long-term moving averages crossed, showing that the cryptocurrency could remain under pressure even during a broader bottoming phase.

Bitcoin’s reaction to the moving-average cluster is critical

The current setup, identified as Cycle D, focuses on Bitcoin’s position around the 66-week and 100-week moving averages. According to EGRAG, Bitcoin’s price reaction around this cluster is more important than the crossover itself.

A weekly close above the 66-week moving average would strengthen the bullish case. However, a single move above the indicator would not by itself establish a durable recovery. Bitcoin would need to show acceptance above the level through continued price action.

Repeated weekly closes above the moving average, followed by a successful retest that confirms the level as support, could provide stronger evidence of sustained demand. Buyers would also need to maintain higher lows and prevent another breakdown below the moving-average cluster.

Such price action could support the view that Bitcoin’s major market bottom has already formed. By contrast, failure to hold the recovery could leave the market exposed to another decline.

Rejection could send Bitcoin toward $53,000 to $60,000

A rejection from the moving-average cluster would weaken the developing bullish structure and could shift attention toward the major Fibonacci extension levels highlighted on EGRAG’s chart.

The 1.414 Fibonacci extension is positioned around $59,600 and represents the first major downside reference. The 1.618 extension is near $53,600 and provides a lower structural target.

The broader area between $53,000 and $60,000 could therefore become Bitcoin’s main downside zone if the recovery fails. A move below roughly $59,000 could increase the likelihood of Bitcoin falling toward $53,000 or $54,000.

EGRAG’s chart also includes an upper Fibonacci reference around $126,700 as part of Bitcoin’s broader cycle structure. However, the analyst did not present that level as an immediate confirmed target.

Bitcoin’s weekly performance around the moving-average cluster will ultimately determine whether the latest bearish crossover becomes part of an established bottoming process or signals an unfinished correction. In practical terms, the next few weekly closes will matter more than the crossover headline itself, because they show whether the market can hold the reclaim and build a base above the long-term averages. Holding above the 66-week moving average would support the recovery scenario, while rejection would keep the deeper downside outlook in place.

Writer: Barland Vex Crypto Market Analyst & Onchain Writer

Barland Vex covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on on-chain data, Bitcoin price action, and emerging market narratives. His writing examines how capital flows, network activity, and broader market structure influence short- and medium-term trends. He aims to provide clear, data-informed analysis for readers seeking a deeper understanding of crypto market dynamics.