As July draws to a close, the crypto options market is signaling a significant shift in trader positioning. The $60,000 bitcoin (BTC) put option — a contract that protects against a price decline — has become the most popular bet on Deribit, the world's largest crypto options exchange, with a notional open interest of $1.17 billion. Deribit handles the vast majority of BTC and ether options trading globally, making its open interest data a widely followed barometer of institutional and sophisticated trader sentiment.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, recently traded at $62,578.39. It had slipped below $60,000 late last month before recovering to $63,000 and above in recent sessions.

From Calls to Puts: A Sharp Reversal

The dominance of the $60,000 put marks a notable reversal. Until recently, call options — bullish positions — at strike prices of $70,000 and $72,000 were the market leaders, each carrying notional open interest of approximately $2.5 billion. That positioning was driven by heavy call buying ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, with some traders wagering that BTC could climb as high as $72,000 following the U.S. central bank's announcement. Fed rate decisions have historically been closely watched by crypto traders, as shifts in monetary policy expectations can influence demand for risk assets.

That rally did not materialize, likely prompting the unwinding of those bullish bets during Friday's 08:00 UTC expiry, which settled BTC and ether (ETH) options with a combined notional value of $10 billion. Notional open interest on the $70,000 call has since dropped to $943 million, while the $72,000 call has declined to $888 million — both well below the $60,000 put's $1.17 billion.

Notional open interest represents the dollar value of active or open contracts, with one contract corresponding to one BTC.

Seasonality Points to a Difficult August

Historical data adds to the cautious tone. Since 2013, July has produced a median return of 8.61% for bitcoin, and this month's 8.9% gain is broadly in line with that pattern, according to CoinDesk data. However, a positive July has typically been followed by a negative August, which has historically produced a median return of -7.51%.

The median is a particularly useful metric in bitcoin markets, where a few extreme months can significantly distort the average. By focusing on the typical outcome rather than outlier performance, the median provides a clearer picture of what has most frequently occurred.

What's Trending

• Major bitcoin wallet flaw drains 594 BTC in 25-minute sweep (CoinDesk): Approximately 594 bitcoin, worth roughly $38 million, were swept from around 500 wallets on Friday in an attack attributed to a vulnerability in how Coldcard hardware wallets generated their keys.

• Treasury yields follow oil prices lower as investors await fresh economic data (CNBC): U.S. Treasury yields declined alongside oil prices on signs of recovering crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz and hopes for easing Middle East tensions. Declining yields can reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin, a dynamic some crypto market participants track.

• South Korea's Kospi index jumps nearly 18% on a surge in chipmaking stocks (AP): South Korea's Kospi benchmark surged on Friday, tracking Wall Street gains as artificial intelligence-related stocks rebounded following losses earlier in the week. U.S. stock index futures rose and oil prices fell.