Bitcoin's 30-day demand estimate has fallen to negative 348,000 BTC, according to a November 12 update posted by on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. Although overall demand remains negative, improving spot market activity suggests that some underlying conditions may be starting to stabilize.

The Bitcoin 30-day demand indicator reflects an estimate of buying and selling pressure over the past month. Under the indicator's methodology, a deeply negative reading signals that selling pressure or weakening demand continues to outweigh buying interest. Consolidated readings of this kind give market watchers a single gauge of which side of the trade dominated over the period, and the latest figure of −348,000 BTC therefore underscores the significant market pressure Bitcoin continues to face.

Despite the negative print, the reported improvement in spot activity points to a potentially shifting picture. Spot markets involve the direct purchase and sale of Bitcoin, and firmer spot demand can indicate that buyers are becoming more willing to absorb available selling pressure. Because the combined demand measure blends spot activity with derivatives positioning, divergence between the two segments matters — a negative combined line on its own does not reveal which segment is driving the weakness.

One analyst, cited in CryptoQuant's post and credited to RugaResearch, explained what they are watching next:

"What I want to see next is spot continuing toward zero and the drag from perps easing enough for the combined line to flatten."

Bitcoin's 30-Day Demand Estimate Hits −348K BTC as Spot Improves

"What I want to see next is spot continuing toward zero and the drag from perps easing enough for the combined line to flatten." – By @RugaResearch

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com), November 12, 2026

The comment highlights the importance of both direct Bitcoin trading and derivatives activity in determining overall market momentum. The update does not identify the indicator's exact calculation method or data provider.

Why Bitcoin's 30-Day Demand Remains Negative

The negative estimate appears to reflect weakness across the broader trading environment. Perpetual futures contracts — often called perps — are derivatives with no fixed expiry date that allow traders to speculate on Bitcoin's price movements without owning the underlying cryptocurrency. Their pricing is kept aligned with the spot market through periodic funding payments exchanged between long and short position holders, and these contracts can involve leverage, which may amplify market volatility.

When derivatives positioning remains bearish, it can contribute to downward pressure even as spot conditions begin improving. The analyst's comments suggest that perpetual futures are still acting as a drag on the combined demand measure. For a more convincing recovery, improving spot activity would ideally be accompanied by reduced negative pressure from derivatives.

What Could Signal a Recovery

The latest reading suggests the market has not yet established a clear recovery. However, a move toward less negative spot demand could represent an early improvement. Analysts may watch whether the combined demand indicator begins flattening rather than continuing its downward trend. Such stabilization could suggest that selling pressure is becoming less intense.

A sustained shift into positive territory would provide stronger evidence that demand conditions are improving. Analysts may also monitor whether spot demand continues moving toward zero, the milestone highlighted in the quoted commentary. Because the combined measure blends both segments, the spot-versus-derivatives split remains the detail to follow in upcoming updates.

Reading the Indicator With Caution

Demand estimates are analytical indicators rather than direct measurements of every Bitcoin transaction. They should be evaluated alongside trading volumes, exchange flows, funding rates and broader market liquidity. A flattening indicator would not necessarily guarantee an immediate price rally.

For now, Bitcoin's negative 348,000 BTC demand estimate highlights ongoing weakness, while improving spot activity offers a potential early sign of stabilization.