Bitcoin (BTC) is pressing against a pivotal level, with BTC/USD on the cusp of turning the 2026 yearly candle green after a strong start to October.

Bulls have briefly revisited $87,000 on some exchanges, but the 2026 yearly open at $87,570 looms as ongoing resistance. With a comparatively light macro calendar in the United States, traders are turning their attention to the bond market ahead of Wednesday's 10-year note auction and the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has brushed off a traditionally weak start to the month — October upside has historically averaged 18.7% since 2013.

Yearly open becomes Bitcoin's next resistance hurdle

Bitcoin continues to battle range highs after sealing its highest weekly close since January at $86,532 on Bitstamp. Data from TradingView shows brief wicks to $87,000 following the weekly close, part of Bitcoin's fourth attempt to break higher since Sept. 21. Bulls have so far failed to reclaim the yearly open at $87,570.

The yearly open matters because it marks the exact price at which BTC/USD began the year, making it a natural reference point for framing annual momentum.

On lower time frames, liquidity hunts continue to dictate price action. Similar to the previous week, BTC/USD saw liquidations of nearby short positions around $85,500, while walls of bids and asks thickened around the spot price, keeping volatility constricted. Data from CoinGlass shows liquidation concentrations at $83,700 in addition to the yearly open. Liquidation heatmaps of this kind map the price levels at which leveraged positions would be forcibly closed, offering a reference for where volatility may concentrate.

"Bitcoin continues to be sandwiched between the ~ $82500 key support and the ~ $86700 resistance ahead," trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote in his latest X analysis.

Rekt Capital views $82,500 as the key support needed to avoid revisiting the previous 2026 range between $60,000 and $80,000. A decisive move above $86,700, meanwhile, would open the path to a higher range with $93,700 as its ceiling.

Bond market in focus after 24-year highs

A comparatively light week of macro data in the United States will put bond markets at the forefront, as traders have discounted the odds of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates further.

Last week, both the 10-year and 30-year bond yields hit 5.34% and 5.69%, respectively — levels not seen since 2002. They dropped only modestly on weak nonfarm payrolls data before rebounding to erase most of the decline. At the time of writing on Monday, the 10-year yield stood at 5.25%.

Treasury yields act as a benchmark for the cost of money across financial markets, and elevated yields raise the relative appeal of government debt compared with assets that generate no yield, such as Bitcoin.

"The bond market is in the spotlight this week," trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in an X post on Sunday.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, in which officials voted to increase interest rates by 0.25%. Market expectations of further policy tightening have whipsawed since then. Data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that a week ago, odds of another 0.25% hike at the October FOMC meeting reached 70% before dropping to current levels of just 18%. The tool derives its probabilities from fed funds futures pricing, making it a widely cited snapshot of market-implied policy expectations.

With consensus still favoring a December hike, however, analysts also see the Fed staying hawkish through year end, leaving headwinds for crypto and risk assets in place as a result.

"I think that's the right move I don't think this report necessarily changes the story for the Fed," Timothy Chubb, chief investment officer at Girard Advisory Services, told CNBC about the post-payrolls yield rebound.

Chubb expects the Fed to keep rates "higher for longer" going forward, with inflation sticky and oil prices still volatile thanks to the Middle East conflict.

The August print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, known as the Fed's "preferred" inflation gauge, came in lower than expected but did little to impact markets' assessment of inflation trends. Changes in the way the index is calculated likely accounted for a portion of the drop, Kobeissi argued at the time. The next key inflation print will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI), due for release on Oct. 14, with markets watching for fresh clues on the direction of inflation.

Bitcoin begins historically strong month on the front foot

Seasonality remains a focus among Bitcoin market participants as October has commenced with BTC price upside. Onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin has already weathered a traditionally difficult period at the start of the month.

"Bitcoin's first three days of October have historically been its weakest three-day stretch of the month, averaging a 0.66% decline. 2026 has already held up better," contributor Andrew Kamsky wrote on Sunday.

BTC/USD gained 1.4% in the first three days of October, with current month-to-date upside at 2.7%. From the Oct. 1 close to the Oct. 3 close, the pair avoided losses, whereas the historical average for the period has been -0.66%, Kamsky reported.

Data from CoinGlass shows that, on average since 2013, Bitcoin has ended October 18.7% higher — a pace that would imply a 2026 target of just under $100,000. Over the past 13 years, there have been just three "red" October months, with the largest downside figure of -13% seen in 2014. Seasonal averages describe long-run tendencies rather than guarantees, however, and individual years can deviate sharply from the historical pattern.

The solid start to October extends an unusually strong third quarter. Cointelegraph previously reported that Bitcoin's Q3 gains exceeded 40% — the best Q3 result since the 2017 bull market.

Source: Cointelegraph