Analyst Benjamin Cowen observes that 2026 is mirroring 2018, with Bitcoin oscillating between the 200-week moving average — a long-term trend indicator that has historically marked cyclical inflection points — and a bear market resistance band. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $240M in daily outflows on July 24 but still closed the week with $33.79M in net inflows, extending their positive streak to three consecutive green weeks.

Bitcoin traded at $63,985 on July 25 after pulling back from a 4-hour order block near $67,000. Cowen cautioned that the July rally may have no more than two weeks remaining before historically seasonal weakness typically sets in. While three straight weeks of ETF inflows suggest institutional support is holding, the 2018 analog implies that July gains could face reversal pressure in August.

BTC Retraces to 0.79 OTE After Order Block Rejection

The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin rejecting an order block near $67,000 and pulling back into the 0.79 Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) zone around $63,985. The OTE is a Fibonacci-based retracement zone central to the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology, a widely followed technical framework that maps institutional price delivery using defined swing points and liquidity concepts. The ICT framework mapped on the chart traces the full retracement from the session high: the 0.5 level sits at approximately $65,000, the 0.62 level at $64,500, the 0.79 at the current price, and the 1.0 full retracement target at $63,100.

Two scenarios define the setup heading into the weekend. If price holds the 0.79 OTE and buyers re-enter, New York's Sunday session could drive the rally toward the $67,000 buy-side liquidity — resting buy orders clustered above the rejection level — left untouched by the order block rejection. If the OTE fails to hold, the next target is the $63,100 liquidity zone at the 1.0 retracement level. Before any directional move commits on the higher timeframe, a London sweep of Asia's range on the 15-minute chart is anticipated.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Support: $63,985 at the 0.79 OTE; $63,100 at the 1.0 retracement level
• Resistance: $65,000 at the 0.5 level; $66,000–$67,000 at the order block and buy-side liquidity
• Key floor: Ascending trendline near $63,500, established from the June low

Benjamin Cowen: The 2018 Analog Suggests Two Weeks Remain in the Rally

In his latest YouTube video, analyst Benjamin Cowen argued that 2026 is behaving as a lower-volatility replay of the 2018 midterm year cycle. Cowen's framework maps Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle against U.S. electoral cycles, noting that midterm years have historically produced midcycle corrections before a subsequent recovery. His central observation is that Bitcoin is oscillating between two levels it cannot decisively break: the bear market resistance band overhead and the 200-week moving average below. Each approach to either boundary has produced a fake-out in both directions.

Cowen compared midterm year July returns directly. In 2022, July closed up 20% before August and September erased those gains. In 2018, July closed up nearly 40% before a similar reversal. In 2026, BTC is up approximately 9% in July — a smaller-magnitude move consistent with his characterization of the year as a less volatile version of 2018.

His base case projects the rally continuing two to four more weeks before reversing, with the S&P 500 potentially topping in August or September and triggering a broader risk-off move that drags BTC lower. Bitcoin has displayed variable but notable correlation with U.S. equity indices during periods of macroeconomic stress, which means a synchronized equity top could reinforce downside pressure across digital assets. From that breakdown, he expects the market cycle bottom to form before a genuine bull market can begin.

Cowen was explicit about his pivot condition: if BTC has not broken down by year-end, he would defer to time-based capitulation and reinstate the bull market thesis. His short-term framing was precise — Bitcoin sits between a rock and a hard place, awaiting a catalyst to force a decisive move in either direction.

ETFs Post Third Straight Green Week Despite Thursday Outflow

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $240.08M in daily outflows on July 24, according to SoSoValue. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $212.17M of the outflows, while Fidelity's FBTC contributed $27.91M.

Despite the single-day figure, the week ending July 24 closed with $33.79M in net inflows — the third consecutive positive week for the category. The prior two weeks logged $75.67M and $197.40M respectively, indicating a decelerating but intact inflow trend. Total net assets across all spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $77.82B, with cumulative inflows reaching $51.39B since the products received SEC approval and began trading in January 2024.

The weekly streak carries more significance than any single daily reading. Three consecutive positive weeks following months of outflows points to sustained institutional demand within the $63,000–$67,000 range, even as individual sessions turn negative on profit-taking. Cumulative inflows surpassing $50B place spot Bitcoin ETFs among the most rapidly adopted ETF launches by assets under management.

Upside and Downside Scenarios

Upside case: BTC holds the 0.79 OTE at $63,985, London sweeps and absorbs Asia's range, New York extends the move toward $67,000 buy-side liquidity, and the three-week ETF inflow streak continues into the following week — particularly if the Federal Reserve's FOMC holds rates at its July 29 meeting, keeping monetary conditions accommodative for risk assets.

Downside case: The 0.79 OTE fails to hold, BTC declines toward the $63,100 liquidity zone, Cowen's 2018 analog accelerates, and August opens with continued ETF outflows as the S&P 500 tops earlier than anticipated, pulling risk assets lower.

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