Bitcoin (BTC) traded near its lowest levels in 11 weeks on Tuesday, dipping toward $73,500 at the Wall Street open after United States inflation data for October came in above market expectations. Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD falling to $73,518, nearly matching the low it had set on Sunday — its weakest level since Aug. 21 — before recovering above $74,000. The move extended weakness for the largest cryptocurrency, which had already slid toward that level over the weekend. For crypto traders, the monthly CPI release is among the most closely watched macro events, since the data shapes Federal Reserve rate expectations and, with them, the liquidity backdrop for risk assets.

Markets price in December rate hike after inflation data

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October rose 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the 0.3% increase anticipated by forecasters. The release carried no year-on-year comparison because data collection was suspended during the 2025 US government shutdown. Even so, the monthly pace of price growth cooled compared with September, when the index increased 0.6%.

“The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in October, accounting for over thirty percent of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent in October, as the food at home index rose 0.4 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.5 percent,” the official release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated.

Whereas energy price increases had accounted for a major portion of the September CPI gain, October’s energy index advanced significantly less, rising 0.7% after the previous month’s 5.2% move. The composition of the report pointed to persistent underlying pressure, with shelter and food costs continuing to climb even as the energy contribution faded.

Economist Robin Brooks described the CPI result as “discouraging,” noting that an oil-price spike had contributed to the September numbers. “All the details of this CPI report are discouraging, but October was also the peak of the second big oil price shock this year and that’s obviously going to bleed into core CPI inflation,” he wrote in an analysis.

In a speech earlier on Tuesday, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said he favored hiking interest rates by 25 basis points in December even if inflation cooled from September. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a 96.3% chance of that outcome at the Fed’s December meeting as a result. Following the CPI report, those odds turned more hawkish, with a 25-basis-point hike attracting 85.3% odds and a 50-basis-point hike drawing 14.7%. The above-consensus print set the tone for risk assets, with pressure visible in both crypto and US equities during the session. With the Fed’s December meeting now the next scheduled decision point, the residual uncertainty in market pricing centers on whether policymakers opt for a 25- or a 50-basis-point move.

Analysis eyes “extreme” Nasdaq sell-off

US stocks came under pressure at the Wall Street open as the CPI report added to existing headwinds for bulls. These included strong labor-market data and the prospect of tighter AI-sector regulation under a Democratic-controlled House and Senate.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index opened down 0.6% before recouping the losses, while Nvidia stock fell nearly 4% amid a board investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. Nvidia — the leading supplier of chips for AI data centers — saw its decline stand out against a broader index that recovered its opening losses.

“Consumer inflation has continued running above target while the October jobs report removed any concerns about a slowdown in the labor market,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company summarized in analysis published on the day.

Mosaic nonetheless observed signs of “extreme” sell-side pressure on the Nasdaq, potentially signaling that the index had formed a long-term bottom. “That includes a spike in the equity put/call ratio which jumped over 1.0 and is even higher than during the trade war selloff in April 2025,” it added. A ratio above 1.0 means trading in bearish put options outpaced bullish calls, a level generally read as a sign of elevated defensive positioning among market participants.