Bitcoin could be positioning for a run toward $100,000 by year-end as the US Treasury steps up support for the long end of the government bond market in an effort to rein in surging interest rates, according to Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick, who leads the bank's digital assets research.

In a recent client note shared with Cointelegraph, Kendrick identified $65,500 as Bitcoin's (BTC) key technical level, saying a break above that threshold could confirm that the cycle low is already in. The reference is to Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the market rhythm historically associated with its halving events, under which the amount of new BTC issued to miners is cut in half roughly every four years, progressively slowing supply growth.

"Investors should now be positioning for a move to USD $100,000 by year-end 2026," he wrote.

Beyond Bitcoin's four-year cycle dynamics — which Kendrick said point to an imminent low — the analyst highlighted the Treasury Department's Wednesday announcement that it will at least double the maximum size of certain liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government bonds. Under the expanded program, the maximum size of buyback operations targeting 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year nominal coupon securities will increase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The enlarged program is scheduled to run from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. Buybacks involve the Treasury repurchasing outstanding securities to improve trading conditions in older, less liquid issues, and the department began conducting regular buyback operations in 2024, its first such program in more than two decades.

The announcement sent long-dated Treasury yields sharply lower, easing some of the pressure that had built across financial markets following a steep bond selloff. Long-dated yields act as benchmarks for borrowing costs across the economy — from mortgages to corporate financing — which is why stress in the Treasury market tends to ripple across asset classes.

Wednesday's Treasury announcement "is exactly the type of thing Bitcoin loves," Kendrick wrote, pointing to the digital asset's historical tendency to benefit from government liquidity interventions and to its fixed supply — capped at 21 million coins — which makes it resistant to monetary debasement.

Early signs appeared to support Kendrick's thesis, with Bitcoin surging more than 6% to nearly $69,000 in Wednesday's late-morning US trading — its highest level since early June, according to CoinMarketCap. With the enlarged buyback operations set to run through Nov. 4, the near-term test of the thesis is whether Bitcoin can sustain a break above the $65,500 threshold Kendrick flagged.