Fears that Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 have resurfaced as stock market volatility fuels concern about another cryptocurrency downturn, but historical data indicates that such a decline would rank among the asset's worst recorded losses. The debate intensified on October 16, when US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $82.39 million in net outflows, according to data from SoSoValue.

Despite those withdrawals, cumulative net inflows into the funds stood at $56.88 billion, while total ETF assets reached $104.29 billion. Analysts are watching for a broader stock market correction and potentially deeper Bitcoin losses. On-chain analyst Darkfost, however, has questioned the $10,000 prediction, pointing to the depth of past declines and the structural shifts the Bitcoin market has undergone, while market analyst Adam highlighted relative stability around key technical levels.

Bitcoin ETFs Record $82.39 Million in Net Withdrawals

According to SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs registered $82.39 million in net withdrawals during the latest reporting session. Despite the weaker net flows, trading volume across the funds hit $2.66 billion.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in the United States in January 2024, hold the asset directly and trade like exchange-listed shares, and their daily flow figures have become a widely watched gauge of investor demand for Bitcoin.

The total value of all ETF holdings stood at $104.29 billion, equivalent to roughly 6.35% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. The latest withdrawals point to reduced exposure, while the cumulative inflow figure indicates that a considerable amount of capital continues to be invested through these funds.

The outflows coincided with renewed volatility in traditional financial markets, a development that could indicate additional selling pressure. Even so, a single session of withdrawals does not necessarily mean investors are preparing to cut back on their Bitcoin holdings.

Historical Drawdowns Challenge the $10,000 Scenario

To determine whether a 20% stock market correction could drag Bitcoin prices down to $10,000, Darkfost studied the cryptocurrency's previous bear markets. His calculations suggest such a move would mark an 87% cut from the price he used in his analysis. A drawdown measures the decline from a peak to a subsequent trough, making it a common yardstick for comparing the severity of bear markets across different eras.

Alright, let's take stock with a few numbers to see whether this makes sense. The idea is to check whether bitcoin:native could fall to $10 000 if the stock market were to correct by -20%. To start, Bitcoin going to $10,000 would represent a -87% drawdown from its current price… pic.twitter.com/DIc2vrTRol — Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) October 17, 2026

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A decline to $10,000 would also represent a drop of roughly 92% from Bitcoin's previous record price, placing such a crash in line with some of the worst historical drawdowns the asset has ever experienced. Bitcoin recorded a 92.9% drawdown in 2011, followed by losses of 82.5% in 2015 and 82.6% in 2019. By comparison, the 2022 bear market saw a drop of 74.4%, Darkfost said, citing a 54.2% drawdown for 2026. As he observed, these Bitcoin crashes have been quite different in terms of intensity.

Darkfost also analyzed the growing size of the Bitcoin market, noting that its highest valuation was $117 million in 2011 and that by 2025 it had reached $2.45 trillion. He further noted that Bitcoin saw its price drop more than 22% in April 2025, while the S&P 500 experienced a correction of more than 19%.

Bitcoin Faces a Key Test at $80,000

Market analyst Adam, meanwhile, noted that the cryptocurrency remained relatively stable even as stock markets showed renewed weakness. He said he was observing buying interest at near-term lows while demand for short-dated put options was rising. Put options, contracts that gain value when the underlying asset declines, are commonly used for downside protection, so rising demand for them is often read as a gauge of hedging interest.

Bitcoin held quite well yesterday during yet another traumatizing event in the stock market. Solid absorption at the lows with a shorter tenor put demand also spiking into the lows while price is not really going much lower. As long as we are above 80k, we are back; below it's… pic.twitter.com/TykwrY2uXw — Adam (@abetrade) October 17, 2026

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In Adam's view, $80,000 is the key level in Bitcoin's current trading structure. He indicated that the upper threshold of the trading range sits around $86,000, while $84,000 would serve as the point of control. These levels mark where the Bitcoin market may find support, or where further downward pressure could emerge.

Should equities weaken further and ETF withdrawals continue, however, the resulting pressure could weigh on overall market sentiment. The next ETF flow readings and Bitcoin's behavior around the $80,000 level Adam identified are the immediate data points to watch as the debate unfolds.

Source: Live Bitcoin News