Binance.US is preparing to enter the prediction market arena, positioning itself to compete with established leaders Kalshi and Polymarket. The U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange plans to seek a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) license to launch its own event-contract trading platform.

Speaking during a panel at the Rare Evo conference in Las Vegas, Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory confirmed that the company intends to file an application for a designated contract market (DCM) license as early as next month. A DCM designation would legally enable retail clients to trade futures, options, and event contracts on the platform. This regulatory pathway places Binance.US under the CFTC's derivatives oversight framework, which operates separately from the SEC's securities jurisdiction — a distinction that has shaped much of the crypto industry's recent legal landscape.

Crypto America host Eleanor Terrett described the planned application as a central element of the company's broader comeback strategy, which centers on lower trading fees and diversification beyond spot trading into perpetuals and prediction markets.

Rebuilding After Regulatory Setbacks

The push into prediction markets follows years of regulatory challenges that significantly reduced Binance.US's footprint in the American market. Since Gregory assumed the CEO role this year, the exchange has focused on rebuilding revenue through competitive fee structures, product expansion, and strengthened compliance controls.

As part of its renewed growth strategy, Binance.US has introduced near-zero trading fees, announced plans to expand into derivatives, and set an ambitious target to grow its share of the U.S. crypto exchange market. Adding prediction markets would diversify the platform's product offerings and open new revenue streams beyond cryptocurrency spot trading. The move also reflects a broader industry trend in which crypto-native exchanges are leveraging their existing trading infrastructure and customer bases to enter regulated financial products traditionally dominated by conventional brokerages.

Prediction markets have emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments in financial technology, enabling users to trade contracts tied to real-world event outcomes. The sector has drawn increasing institutional and retail interest following legal victories that expanded the availability of event contracts in the United States, encouraging more financial firms to explore the space.

If Binance.US secures CFTC approval, it would join a competitive field that includes Kalshi and Polymarket. Gemini recently obtained its own license, and Coinbase has partnered with Kalshi to offer event contracts to U.S. customers. The growing roster of entrants signals that prediction markets are becoming a standard product offering across both crypto and traditional finance platforms, intensifying competition for retail trader attention and volume.

The Shadow of Binance Holdings' Legal Settlement

Since 2023, Binance.US has seen its trading volume decline sharply, a direct consequence of the broader legal battles involving its global parent entity, Binance Holdings. The parent company admitted to violating major U.S. banking laws and agreed to pay approximately $4.3 billion in penalties. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao served four months in prison and subsequently received a formal pardon from President Donald Trump.

Zhao retains a majority stake in Binance.US. Following his release, he has actively promoted growth initiatives aimed at revitalizing the platform's domestic operations, though he maintains that his involvement is strictly technical in nature.

"We want to do much more business in the US. We want to bring a superior product into the US. We want to make the superior product offering much more accessible to the US consumer," Zhao stated.

A platform spokesperson, addressing his remarks, said the company's core mission is to become the leading U.S. venue for buying, trading, and earning crypto assets, with a focus on developing new products and adapting to evolving user needs.

Robinhood Reportedly in Talks with Crypto.com

Separately, Robinhood Markets is reportedly exploring a potential deal with Crypto.com to list the exchange's prediction market contracts on the Robinhood app. According to the Wall Street Journal, there is no guarantee the negotiations will result in a final agreement. If completed, the partnership would give retail traders direct access to Crypto.com's binary markets through their existing Robinhood accounts.

Robinhood currently sources its event contracts from Kalshi, Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx, and Rothera. However, the company's share of Kalshi's trading volume has been steadily declining since Rothera was added as a provider. Overall, trading activity on Robinhood's platform exceeded 16 billion event contracts this year, up from more than 12 billion throughout 2025.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour acknowledged Robinhood's growing presence in the space. In June, he described Robinhood as a key competitor, despite their existing partnership.

Kalshi continues to dominate the U.S. prediction market. The firm reported World Cup betting handles of $27 billion, dwarfing the $1 billion wagered on the Super Bowl. Combined trading data showed that sports-related contracts accounted for 80% of customer order flow across both Kalshi and Polymarket during the World Cup period.