Bill Gates has warned that leaders, experts and communities are not adequately preparing for the disruption he expects from artificial intelligence, arguing that there is no real plan to ease the transition into the AI era.

The Microsoft founder, who remains among the world’s richest people but now owns relatively few Microsoft shares after steadily selling and donating stock, published an essay on the topic on Tuesday. In it, he said he sees no evidence that policymakers and institutions are confronting the challenge properly.

"I don’t see evidence that leaders, experts, and communities are confronting the challenges adequately. There is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era," he wrote.

Gates also pushed back on the familiar argument that new technology always creates new jobs, saying the AI wave is different because it can spread much faster than previous technological shifts and reach workplaces on the devices people already use.

"We have no experience with a technology that can be adopted quickly or that can think and move like a human. When the PC came along, it took twenty years to significantly change how we worked because the software had to be developed, the price had to come down, and people had to learn how to use the tools and incorporate them into their business processes. AI, on the other hand, runs on the devices we already have, and it uses natural language. We don’t have to adapt to it because it can adapt to us. It can watch the same training video that is used to train human workers and learn from existing data."

He said earlier technological transitions took generations, and pointed to the Great Depression, when unemployment reached 25%, as a reminder of how severe labor-market disruption can become.

Gates warned that robots and AI could create a self-reinforcing cycle in which companies that adopt the technology first gain a cost advantage and force competitors to follow. If established businesses do not move quickly enough, he said, start-ups will. He added that while many workers may eventually move into other roles, the disruption from losing jobs, retraining and finding new work would be significant.

"Robots and AI combined can create a vicious cycle. After one company adopts them and uses the savings to lower its prices, its competitors will feel immense pressure to do the same. If existing companies don’t adopt them, then start-ups will. Many people will shift to other jobs, but the turmoil of losing work, getting retrained, and finding other work will be significant. Market forces will make adoption go faster and faster and, unless we intervene, there will be fewer good jobs available and the benefits will accrue to a small group," he wrote.

He also said the gains from AI should be shared more broadly, rather than concentrated among a narrow group, and called for immediate discussion about how to reduce job losses.

"We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates," Gates wrote.

Beyond employment, Gates warned about the possible misuse of AI in weapons, fraud, disinformation and surveillance. He also said AI companionship could be harmful, especially for children, and could weaken critical thinking.

One of the most striking ideas in the essay was his proposal to tax AI.

"I believe we should tax AI tokens and robots. Right now, if you’re an employer and you hire someone, you pay payroll taxes on their earnings. But if you buy a robot, you can usually write it off right away as a business expense. The tax system nudges you toward replacing people with machines," he wrote.

Gates argued that such a tax could slow the pace of adoption. He described his ideas as radical, but said they are worth considering alongside the warnings from AI executives who are currently asking the public not to worry while seeking major support for large-scale projects.