Bill Gates says there is no plan in place for the disruption artificial intelligence is about to cause. In a nearly 6,000-word essay published Wednesday on his personal website, the Microsoft co-founder warned that the transition to an AI-driven economy will be one of the most turbulent periods in human history.

Bill Gates warns AI could reshape society faster than governments can adapt. He predicts many jobs could disappear and calls for AI taxes, protected “Human Reserved” jobs, and a global AI watchdog. Gates says AI could either reduce inequality or create new injustices. pic.twitter.com/TFEZgUaSHx

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His warning lands in the middle of an already active debate. A 2023 Goldman Sachs analysis estimated that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs to automation, and a 2024 International Monetary Fund staff analysis projected that almost 40 percent of global employment is exposed to AI, with advanced economies facing the greatest exposure.

Gates said AI is advancing at a “mind-blowing rate.” He argued that previous technology shifts gave workers time to adapt, but AI is moving too quickly for that pattern to hold.

“AI will take on work in law, customer service, medicine, software, and manufacturing,” Gates wrote. “It will hit these industries rapidly, over the course of a decade rather than a few generations.”

Jobs Across the Economy at Risk

White-collar jobs in sales, customer support, software engineering and paralegal work could be among the first to be affected. Gates said AI is already helping companies offload tasks such as data analysis, reducing the need for human labor.

Blue-collar workers are also at risk. Gates predicted that “smart” robots will begin competing with people on physical tasks in construction and hospitality by the end of the decade.

Young people entering the workforce face fewer job openings, Gates warned. He described a potential “vicious cycle” in which companies deploy AI and robotics to cut costs, forcing their competitors to do the same.

He is not alone in urging preparation. AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton left his role at Google in 2023 saying he wanted to speak freely about the technology’s risks, and hundreds of executives and researchers signed a 2023 statement calling for AI risk to be treated as a global priority.

The Tax Idea Gates Is Pushing

Gates proposed a tax on AI tokens and robots as one way to slow the pace of human worker displacement. He noted that under current tax rules, hiring a person comes with payroll taxes, while buying a robot can be written off immediately as a business expense.

“The tax system nudges you toward replacing people with machines,” he wrote.

It is not his first attempt at the idea. Gates floated taxing robots that replace workers in a 2017 interview, and the concept has gained little ground since: European Parliament lawmakers rejected a robot tax proposal in 2018, and South Korea that year reduced tax incentives for automation investment in a move widely described as the world’s first “robot tax,” though it stopped short of a direct levy. No major economy has yet adopted an explicit automation tax.

Gates also suggested reserving certain jobs, such as elder care, for humans. He compared the approach to creating a nature preserve, where societies deliberately choose to protect something rather than replace it.

Calling for Global Action

Gates said individual countries cannot manage AI risks alone. He called for new national coordinating bodies and a new international organization to be built in parallel. He suggested these could be modeled on existing systems such as nuclear weapons inspection regimes, international aviation rules and ozone layer protection agreements.

Some international coordination on AI already exists, though it has centered on safety rather than employment. The 2023 AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park produced a declaration signed by more than two dozen countries and the European Union, and the EU AI Act, the world’s first comprehensive AI law, entered into force in 2024.

Gates acknowledged that he still has financial ties to the tech industry. He also said AI has the potential to accelerate progress on major global problems, including clean energy, food production, disease eradication and climate change.

“I believe we need time to prepare,” Gates wrote. “The people who need the most time are the ones who have the least.”

The essay marks a shift in tone from Gates, who previously called AI “the biggest technical thing ever in my lifetime.” His 2023 essay “The Age of AI Has Begun” focused largely on the technology’s promise for productivity, health care and education, and he later suggested AI could eventually make a three-day work week possible. The new essay centers on what happens if societies fail to prepare for the disruption that promise brings.